Tuesday’s NHL slate brings a full lineup of action, with intriguing matchups and solid betting opportunities. We’re targeting value on an underdog play, a high-scoring matchup, and a high-percentage player prop. With the Blue Jackets in a favorable spot against a fatigued Lightning squad, the over in that contest looking sharp, and Cale Makar’s shots on goal prop standing out as a must-bet, there’s plenty of value on the board. Let’s dive into the best bets for March 4.
Blue Jackets ML at Lightning (+140, BetMGM)
We have a pretty sizable NHL slate here on a Tuesday, and the first matchup that I am targeting is down in Florida, where the Blue Jackets are flying to take on the Lightning. Tampa Bay had been red-hot before yesterday, which was a close 2-1 loss to the Florida Panthers. They have still won eight of their last 10 games, and have been nails at home, with a very impressive 21-7 record. The Lightning have also been pretty good when it comes to covering as well, going 34-27 ATS.
The Blue Jackets overall have been a pretty average team, with a 30-22-8 record on the year, but they have been cooking with gas over the last few weeks. They have won seven of their last 10 games, going on a bit of a run here lately. I know few people actually bet the spread in hockey, but they have been great at covering it, with a 38-22 ATS record this season. Columbus has been great at keeping games close, with a 33-16 ATS record as an underdog.
With the Lightning on the second half of a back to back, and with netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy likely to sit, that means backup Jonas Johansson could get the start. That would be a big negative for Tampa Bay, as he owns a 3.24 GAA and .892 SV% compared to Vasilevskiy’s 2.18 GAA and .924 SV%.
This line has already moved down from +170 last night to +140 now, showing some clear sharp cash coming in on Columbus as a dog. It has been historically profitable to fade a team that is on the second night of a back to back, and we are going to do that here.
Blue Jackets at Lightning Over 6.5 Goals (-122, BetMGM)
I’m going to stay in this game for our total of the day, for many of the reasons that I just talked about in the pick above.
Both of these teams have some very talented offenses, and I don’t trust either netminder tonight. I already talked about Johansson, and how he has really struggled between the pipes in his opportunities to start. The Blue Jackets may not have an overwhelming offense, but they can certainly score, and they have been hot as of late. That isn’t exactly what you want to see if you are the Lightning starting a shaky backstop.
Columbus has had issues no matter who has been in the net for them. Starter Elvis Merzlikins has been underwhelming at best, with a 2.97 GAA and .897 SV%. Backup Danil Tarasov has been even worse, with a dreadful 3.58 GAA and .881 SV%. So, it really doesn’t matter who starts, neither guy is going to inspire a ton of confidence.
I think this has a chance to be the highest scoring game of the night with two unreliable netminders, so I’ll back the over.
Avalanche D Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal vs. Penguins (-172, BetMGM)
I know this is juiced to the moon at -172, but whenever we can get a 2.5 line on Makar, I have to have something on his over. He’s gone over this line now in seven straight games coming into this one at home against Pittsburgh, a team that has some serious issues on defense and in the net. He’s likely going to get plenty of opportunities from the blue line to fire away, and we know what a serious threat he is from back there.
Not only that, but his role on the power-play is large, and the Penguins have been a disaster on the penalty kill. I expect him to fire away and easily surpass this 2.5 line, and I don’t mind throwing a unit on it here.
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