As NFL Week 6 approaches, we’re diving into the top player prop bets that offer the most value across passing, rushing, and receiving categories. From Commanders QB Jayden Daniels’ passing yards total against the Ravens to Ravens RB Derrick Henry’s longest rush prop, there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to take advantage of favorable lines. Whether you’re looking to bet on rushing yardage, receptions, or receiving totals, these prop picks focus on key matchups and player trends. Let’s explore the best NFL Week 6 player props to back this weekend after my 6-0 sweep in Week 5!
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels Over 223.5 Passing Yards vs. Ravens (-113, BetRivers)
This game has a 51.5-point total (2nd-highest on the slate), so I naturally want to target multiple player props from it. The first is Daniels, who is off to an otherworldly start for the Commanders. No team in the NFL has allowed more average passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks than the Ravens (304) and Daniels has gone over this mark four straight times, with 226, 254, 233 and 238 against the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals and Browns, respectively. OC Kliff Kingsbury has designed game plans that make life as easy as possible for his rookie QB and I don’t expect that to end in this particular matchup.
Ravens RB Derrick Henry Over 17.5 Yards Longest Rush vs. Commanders (-115, BetMGM)
On the other side of this game, I love Henry. With long runs of 29, 29, 87 and 51 yards over his last four games (against the Raiders, Cowboys, Bills and Bengals), the future Hall of Famer should have no issue running wild on Washington’s terrible run defense. In fact, no team in the NFL has allowed more yards per carry (5.28) than the Commanders. Henry has proven big-play ability and I expect him to rip off another big run or two in this matchup, which would improve his over-17.5 yards longest rush streak to five. At 30 years old, you can make the clear argument that Henry is the best running back in the league (still), which is simply insane.
Titans RB Tony Pollard Over 65.5 Rushing Yards vs. Colts (-115, BetMGM)
Despite some confusion in the preseason, Tennessee’s RB1 role is firmly Pollard’s. The prized free agent signing has outsnapped teammate Tyjae Spears in all four games played and took 22 carries for 88 yards in his last outing against the Dolphins. Fresh off of a bye week, he will get an awesome matchup against a Colts defense that just allowed 37 points to the then-winless Jaguars. In that one, backup Jacksonville RB Tank Bigsby ran 13 times for 101 yards and two touchdowns and on the season, Indy has allowed 119.0 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, 5th-most in the NFL. Not only that, but Pollard ranks 1st among RB’s in yards after carry while Indy’s defense ranks 29th in yards after contact allowed to the position!
Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Saints (-127, Caesars)
I don’t usually put too much stock in WR-CB matchups, but the Mike Evans-Marshon Lattimore matchup is one that actually has legitimate history to take into consideration. Those guys hate each other and Evans’ production has been limited by Lattimore over the years. With that being said, Godwin is having an insane start to the year in new OC Liam Coen’s offense and has gone over 5.5 receptions in five of six games. With an average of 8.0 targets per game, he should get the volume and looks required to go over this number, just like he has done in four of his last five games against the Saints dating back multiple seasons.
Texans TE Dalton Schultz Over 30.5 Receiving Yards vs. Patriots (-110, BetMGM)
With Nico Collins out and Joe Mixon banged up, Houston’s offense is going to be limited against the Patriots. Many will flock to Stefon Diggs or Tank Dell, and rightfully so, but sportsbooks have adjusted their props to reflect their presumed new roles. Schultz, on the other hand, hasn’t seen that same adjustment and is in a great spot against a Patriots defense that’s allowed 53.0 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, 8th-most in the NFL, including 12.05 yards per catch, 3rd-most. Posting 34 yards in back-to-back games against the Bills and Jaguars, Schultz is coming off a season-high six targets and I think he’s the safest pick in this game to go over his yardage total. Remember that Jerod Mayo learned under Bill Belichick and will likely do his best to take away the opposing team’s biggest threat, which will now be Diggs.
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