In Week 5's Thursday Night Football matchup, the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) in a key NFC South battle. According to the BetQL model, the Falcons are slight favorites at -125, with a projection of -142 and a 58.84% chance to win. The Buccaneers have shown strong form early in the season, covering the spread in three of their four games, including a decisive win against the Eagles last week.
Meanwhile, Atlanta has struggled against the spread, going 1-3 ATS despite splitting their record at 2-2. The Falcons narrowly lost to the Steelers and Chiefs but secured a thrilling win against the Eagles in Week 2. BetQL’s model favors the Falcons' moneyline as a 2-star value bet, offering an edge over the current market odds.
For total points, BetQL highlights a strong value on the first-half under, setting a 4-star recommendation on under 21.5 points, projecting an 18.5 total. The Falcons have generally played in lower-scoring games this season, hitting the under in three of their four contests, while Tampa Bay has split their over/under results evenly.
With both teams looking to solidify their position in the NFC South, BetQL’s model suggests value in the Falcons’ moneyline and the under for the first half, making these two bets the top recommendations for Thursday night's showdown.
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