The 2024-2025 NBA season is finally upon us and Opening Night features matchups between the defending champion Boston Celtics and new-look New York Knicks followed by the new-look Minnesota Timberwolves at the Los Angeles Lakers.
Every day of the season, I’m going to write up my favorite player props, just like I have over the last couple seasons. Last season, I finished +87.2 units after going +86.5 units in 2022-2023, transparently revealing all of my picks every day on X while consistently being ranked as a top industry prop handicapper by numerous third-party sources. With that being said, let’s get into the Opening Night slate with two plays that stand out to me.
Celtics PG Jrue Holiday Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks vs. Knicks (-115, DraftKings)
Since joining the Celtics, Holiday has played the Knicks five times in the regular season and has not only recorded two steals + blocks in four of those five contests, but three steals + blocks in four of those five games. Fresh off of representing his country on Team USA and coming off of an NBA title, he should be entering this season with a ton of confidence.
Averaging 2.8 pass deflections and 5.6 contested shots per game against New York last season, Holiday should continue to be very active on the defensive end and possesses a size advantage over Jalen Brunson when tasked with defending him. Now even more familiar with backcourt mate Derrick White and his championship-winning teammates, Holiday’s defensive prowess should be on display once again this season, starting with this contest in front of what should be a very loud and proud home crowd.
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Celtics PF Jayson Tatum Under 26.5 Points vs. Knicks (-109, Caesars)
In 18 career head-to-head games against Knicks PF OG Anunoby, Tatum has finished under this 26.5-point mark 15 times, 83.3% of the time. Under Joe Mazzulla, Boston prides itself on ball movement and finding the guy with the highest percentage look. With Jaylen Brown (who will be playing with a chip on his shoulder after getting snubbed from Team USA), Derrick White and Jrue Holiday all as capable bulk scorers in the starting lineup, I expect the Celtics to spread the ball around and for it to be an uphill battle for Tatum to get over this number against an elite on-ball defender with the size and girth to defend him effectively.
This will also be the debut of Tatum’s new jump shot that he worked on over the summer. Whenever a player alters his jumper, I generally get wary of betting over his props, due to the fact that muscle memory got him to an elite level and the mental acrobatics that go along with such a change can be significant. Give me the under.
Timberwolves PF Naz Reid Over 1.5 Made Threes vs. Lakers (-105, DraftKings)
The reigning Sixth Man of the Year will play another important role for the Timberwolves this season. Last year, he went 5-for-10 and 6-for-8 from three in his last two games against the Lakers, has hit multiple threes in five straight games against Los Angeles and showed off his aggressiveness beyond the arc in the preseason, going 3-for-7 from three in 23 minutes against the 76ers and 2-for-9 from deep in 22 minutes against the Knicks in his final two contests.
Last season, Reid shot a blistering 41.4% from long range and made 2.1 threes per game in 24.2 minutes off the pine. Spelling both Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle this season, I expect him to play 24-to-28 minutes in this one, which should be more than enough time for him to hoist up plenty of shots from the perimeter. Even though Minnesota added some offensive talent through the draft (Rob Dillingham, Terrence Shannon) and traded for Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, Reid’s usage should be safe as he will be a key member of Chris Finch’s rotation once again.
Public BetMGM NBA Player Prop Bets
For the Knicks vs. Celtics matchup, some of the most popular player props at BetMGM include Karl-Anthony Towns Over 21.5 Points (-110) as a key bet, with many backing the Knicks' star to score big. Another notable prop is Miles McBride Over 8.5 Points (-125), as bettors anticipate a solid contribution from the Knicks guard. On the Celtics side, many are betting on Jayson Tatum Under 26.5 Points (-105), expecting Boston’s superstar to be kept in check. Additionally, there is significant action on Josh Hart Under 9.5 Points (-135), with expectations that Hart may not score much. However, some bettors are targeting Hart's playmaking abilities, with action on Josh Hart Over 4.5 Assists (-105).
For the Timberwolves vs. Lakers matchup, a popular bet is Anthony Davis Under 24.5 Points (-110), with many predicting the Lakers' big man might struggle offensively. Meanwhile, there is heavy betting on Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Assists (-160), showing confidence in his ability to facilitate. Another popular prop for Davis is Over 0.5 Three-pointers made (-150), reflecting expectations that he will hit at least one shot from beyond the arc. On the rebounding front, many are betting on Julius Randle Under 7.5 Rebounds (-140), anticipating a quieter night on the glass for the Timberwolves forward. Lastly, Donte DiVincenzo Over 12.5 Points (-105) is seeing action as well, with bettors expecting him to score in double figures.
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