It has been all New York so far in this series, as the Yankees took Games 1 and 2 at home against the Cleveland Guardians. Now, the series will shift to Progressive Field, where the home team will be desperate for a win. The Guardians simply cannot afford to go down 3-0 in this series, as it very likely would be curtains for their season if they did. They know this, so I expect an all out effort to get back into this series tonight.
The Yankees will throw RHP Clarke Schmidt at them tonight. Many are wondering why AL Rookie of the Year favorite Luis Gil isn’t starting instead, but I think that New York is telling you something by having Schmidt start for him in the postseason. Plus, Schmidt has very comparable numbers to Gil. He owned a 3.75 xERA and 3.92 xFIP across 85.1 regular season innings. In contrast, Gil owned a 3.83 xERA and 4.36 xFIP, so Schmidt actually has the better overall numbers. In Game 3 of the ALDS, Schmidt had a pretty good performance, going 4 ⅔ innings while allowing four hits and two runs. He’ll get the Guardians in their weaker split, owning just a 95 wRC+ vs. RHPs during the regular season.
On the other side, LHP Matthew Boyd is getting the nod in a critical Game 3 for Cleveland. He came off Tommy John surgery this season, and as we know, you can have very mixed results from guys after that. In 39 ⅔ innings during the regular season, Boyd registered a 3.10 xERA and 3.89 xFIP, and was quite effective in that limited sample size. In his two starts against the Tigers in the ALDS, he was also good, going a combined 6 ⅔ innings without allowing a run in either game. He has been given a short leash in both games, though. He faced the Yankees one time this season, going 5 ⅓ innings while allowing three runs and four walks. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto smacked back-to-back homers against him in the first inning in that game. However, the Yankees in general were worse against lefties, with a 107 wRC+ compared to 120 vs. RHPs.
I expect the Guardians to be extremely aggressive in this game, and utilize their fantastic bullpen, which ranks 2nd in xFIP. I once again expect Boyd to have a shorter leash, so taking a look at his under 3.5 strikeouts could be a good way to play him here. The Guardians only used two relievers in back-to-backs at Yankee Stadium, Erik Sabrowski and Pedro Avila. Therefore, their bullpen should be very rested overall, and as I mentioned, they are going to deploy whoever they need to in order to win this game.
The Yankees bullpen used three of their best arms in Game 1 and 2, with Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, and Tim Hill. Still, if they manage to get a lead in the late innings of this game, I also would expect them to go for the knockout punch, and could use any of these guys again if need be since they had off yesterday. Their middle relievers are well-rested, and Marcus Stroman is presumably on the roster for long-relief.
Progressive Field was a pitcher-friendly park the last three years, according to Park Factor, but this year was different. It owned a 94 PF from 2021-2023, but in 2024, that number went up to 104. That is a significant increase in favor of bats. Looking at the latest weather forecasts, it should be quite cool in the mid 50s at first pitch, and wind blowing in from left field around 5 mph. That should reduce the amount of total runs scored on an average night.
As for bets, with how desperate Cleveland is here, I think they are going to be extremely aggressive. I do not see the Yankees offense going off like it has the previous few games, and if it does, they are probably going to the World Series. I like the Under 7.5 here, and I’d also bet the Guardians at anything plus money.
Best Bets: Guardians ML (+103), Under 7.5 (-121), Boyd Under 3.5 K’s (-140), Schmidt Under 4.5 K’s (-125)
Get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets at BetMGM! All you need to do is CLICK HERE, sign up for a new account, make your first deposit and bet! Don’t miss out!
Related
