The No. 9 Missouri Tigers and No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies are set for an SEC showdown this weekend in College Station. Missouri is coming off a bye week, while Texas A&M edged out Arkansas 21-17 last weekend.
Despite being the higher-ranked team, Missouri opened as a 2.5-point underdog on the road. The total opened at 47.5, but early money on the over pushed the line up to 49.5 before settling at 48.5.
Missouri is a perfect 4-0 on the season but struggled to get past Vanderbilt, needing double overtime to secure a 30-27 win despite being an 18.5-point favorite at home. To avoid a letdown on Saturday, the Tigers’ run defense, which ranks 19th in the nation by holding opponents to just 103.0 rushing yards per game, must continue its strong play.
Texas A&M (4-1) has won four straight games since losing its home opener to Notre Dame. Backup quarterback Marcel Reed has taken over since Connor Weigman’s injury in Week 1, though there’s speculation that Weigman could return for this game. Regardless of who is under center, the Aggies will rely on their potent ground game, as 65% of their plays have been rushing attempts. Over the last three games, they’ve averaged 226.3 rushing yards per game, a top-15 mark nationally.
However, Texas A&M’s passing game has been underwhelming, ranking 115th in the nation with just 153.5 air yards per game. They’ll face a stiff challenge against a Missouri defense that ranks fifth nationally in opponent completion percentage. Without many downfield opportunities, the Aggies may become one-dimensional, making it difficult to put points on the board. With Missouri coming into this game rested off a bye, it’s hard to see Texas A&M surpassing their team total of 25.5 points (-120, BetMGM).
I also lean toward the full game under 48.5 (-110). Missouri’s offense has lacked explosiveness, generating only 15 plays of 20 yards or more this season, even against weaker defenses. Texas A&M’s defense, led by Mike Elko, is a significant step up, allowing just 20.0 points per game and limiting opponents to only 2.3 red zone scoring attempts per game.
With both teams boasting strong defenses and Texas A&M relying heavily on the run, this game projects to be a slow, grind-it-out battle with limited touchdowns.
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