Welcome to Week 1 of the NCAAF DFS season! I'll be here every week to help you find the best plays for your college football lineups. Whether you're looking to pay up for a star, find a solid middling option, or uncover a hidden gem at a value price, there's always an edge to be found in college DFS. Let's dive into this week's top picks across all positions (using DK pricing).
Quarterbacks: Best NCAAF DFS Quarterbacks for Week 1: High-Priced, Mid-Tier, and Value Picks
Kyron Drones ($8,300) - Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
Virginia Tech’s dual threat QB Kyron Drones is set for a standout performance this week as he enters his second season with the Hokies. Taking over as the starter last fall, Drones made a significant impact, racking up 22 total touchdowns (17 passing, five rushing) and amassing over 2,900 all-purpose yards. His impressive performance has earned him spots on numerous preseason watch lists, including the Manning Award, Davey O’Brien Award, Maxwell Award, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, and Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award, so the expectations are high, and rightfully so.
In 13 games last season, including 11 starts, he threw for 2,084 yards and maintained a stellar 17:3 TD:INT ratio. Facing Vanderbilt, Drones is expected to exploit a weak defense which allowed an average of 36.2 points per game and 6.5 yards per play in 2023. With a returning group of talented wide receivers, Drones will look to challenge Vanderbilt’s defense at every level of the field.
What makes him a viable spend-up option is his ability to run the football, though. He rushed for 818 yards with an average of 4.9 yards per carry, the second-highest on his team last year. His 176-yard rushing game in the Military Bowl (en route to 38.24 FPTS) flashed his sky-high upside and his athleticism and ability to leverage the RPO will be crucial in taking advantage of Vanderbilt’s defensive weaknesses. With both his arm and legs ready to make an impact, Drones is well-positioned for an explosive performance in this matchup and he’ll likely be worth every dollar. Over his last four starts last season, he put up 33.26, 25.1, 25.76 and 38.24 FPTS.
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Mark Gronowski ($6,100) - South Dakota State at Oklahoma State
Mark Gronowski might be the best college QB that you’ve never heard of. Gronowski, the seasoned quarterback for South Dakota State, brings an impressive resume into the matchup against the Cowboys. He has led the Jackrabbits to back-to-back FCS titles and arrives in Stillwater with a remarkable 29-game winning streak. With a career record of 37-3 as a starter, he has a chance to become the all-time winningest quarterback across both FBS and FCS!
Starting as a true freshman, Gronowski faced a setback when he tore his ACL during the 2020 FCS championship game and missed the entire 2021 season. However, his return in 2022 was nothing short of spectacular, guiding his team to a 29-1 record and securing two national championships since then. Despite opportunities to move to a higher level in the transfer portal, Gronowski chose to remain with South Dakota State, valuing the stability and success he has achieved with the Jackrabbits.
The Cowboys' defense, while experienced and expected to improve, struggled with deep passing plays last season, ranking 126th in passing defense and 125th in long passing plays allowed. Gronowski led the FCS with an outstanding passer rating of 179.67 last year and will be looking to make a major statement against an FBS opponent. He averaged 21.6 FPPG last year, which ranks 7th-best among QB’s on this slate despite owning the 40th-highest salary.
Nick Evers ($4,800) - UConn at Maryland
UConn QB Nick Evers is an intriguing value pick at $4,800, especially with his starting role against Maryland. Having come over from Oklahoma and Wisconsin, he is now set to lead UConn's offense. Evers was a four-star recruit and had a standout high school career with nearly 5,000 yards and 44 touchdowns in his junior and senior years. Despite not seeing game action at Wisconsin or Oklahoma (his two previous collegiate stops), he brings significant potential to UConn's offense.
Evers' presence, coupled with a strengthened roster featuring returning running backs Cam Edwards and Victor Rosa, and a revamped receiving corps—highlighted by transfers Brett Buckman (UConn’s third-leading receiver last season), Jasaiah Gathings (Akron), Skyler Bell (Wisconsin), Ezeriah Anderson (Campbell), Shamar Porter (Kentucky), and TJ Sheffield (Purdue)—boosts UConn's offensive outlook. With three years of eligibility remaining, Evers has ample opportunity to showcase his high school form and provide value for DFS lineups. I’d be overjoyed if he threw for 200ish yards with a couple touchdown passes and think that’s a reasonable outlook at Maryland.
Running Backs: Top Week 1 NCAAF DFS Running Backs: Premium, Mid-Range, and Value Plays
Ollie Gordon II ($9,100) - Oklahoma State vs. South Dakota State
Ollie Gordon II, priced at $9,100, is a premium choice and a potential game-changer in your lineup. As the most expensive running back on the board by $1,200, he also offers the highest upside, evident from his 2023 average of 28.9 FPPG. Last season, Gordon excelled with 1,832 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns on 285 carries, complemented by 39 catches for 330 yards and an additional touchdown.
Gordon stands out as the RB1 across all of college football and is a Heisman hopeful. The game is expected to remain competitive, which benefits Gordon, as he is likely to see a full workload without the risk of being rested. Oklahoma State returns 11 starters on offense, and with the game forecasted to be hot and muggy in the high 80s, the conditions could favor Gordon and his offensive line.
Jaydon Blue ($6,200) - Texas vs. Colorado State
Jaydon Blue, priced at $6,200, is a compelling choice given the circumstances. With multiple Texas running backs suffering season-ending injuries before the season, Blue has stepped up to take first-team reps. The Longhorns are massive 32-point favorites against Colorado State, setting up a favorable scenario for Blue.
Texas has a strong track record of producing standout RBs who have transitioned to the NFL, including Keilan Robinson (Jacksonville Jaguars), Roschon Johnson (Chicago Bears), Jonathon Brooks (Carolina Panthers), and Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons). Blue, who previously had limited action with just 15 carries, now steps into the starting role with the injury to co-starter CJ Baxter.
Last season, Blue accumulated 339 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 56 carries, adding 90 receiving yards and another touchdown. He finished strong with a standout performance in the final three games, including a 69-yard rushing touchdown in a 57-7 win over Texas Tech. Blue is poised to be a primary feature in the Longhorns' backfield, especially with Texas projected to score 49.5 points in this matchup. With a high-scoring game expected and Blue’s increased role, he offers significant upside for DFS lineups and this could be his major breakout game.
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Lequint Allen ($5,100) - Syracuse vs. Ohio
Syracuse RB Lequint Allen, priced at $5,100, presents significant value as a top DFS play. Last season marked a breakout for Allen, who rushed for over 1,000 yards in his first full year as Syracuse’s starting running back. His impressive performance earned him Second Team All-ACC honors and Honorable Mention All-ACC for all-purpose play.
Allen finished the season with the 12th-most rushing yards in Syracuse program history (1,064) and had the sixth-most carries in a single season (245). He led the team with nine rushing touchdowns and 38 receptions for 210 yards and a touchdown. Allen also achieved seven 100-yard games, tying for the second-most in program history, and four consecutive 100-yard games, placing him among the top for single-season consecutive 100-yard games.
Despite being priced as the RB22, Allen averaged the 6th most fantasy points per game last year among all RBs on this slate. Given Ohio’s defensive struggles, including losses of their top three tacklers and heavy losses to the transfer portal, Allen is positioned for a strong performance and this is a clear misprice. With Syracuse’s attention also on Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, Allen’s potential for a multi-touchdown game makes him a must-play at this price point. This will be a popular choice in both cash games and tournaments (I’d assume 50% or more in large-field GPP’s), but a fade is risky.
Wide Receivers: Best NCAAF DFS Wide Receivers for Week 1: Elite, Mid-Tier, and Sleeper Picks
Da’Quan Felton ($6,700) - Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt
Da’Quan Felton, priced at $6,700, is a standout option, especially if you’re considering stacking him with quarterback Drones. Felton averaged 15.9 FPPG last season and closed out the year with impressive performances: four catches for 101 yards, seven catches for 87 yards and two touchdowns, and three catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns. His final games yielded fantasy scores of 17.1, 27.7, and 31.3 FPPG.
Felton’s ability to stretch the field and get behind defenses makes him a prime candidate for big plays, particularly in this matchup against Vanderbilt’s defense. While teammate Jaylin Lane ($5,800) is also a solid option, Felton represents the home run play with significant upside. Expect him to get opportunities downfield and potentially capitalize on a favorable matchup.
Skyler Bell ($3,800) - UConn at Maryland
Skyler Bell, priced at $3,800, offers excellent value as a starter and is currently the 4th highest-priced receiver from UConn. Bell transferred from Wisconsin after struggling to secure a regular role behind talented receiver Will Pauling. Now, he’s set to be UConn’s top receiver for the 2024 season, which positions him well for a breakout year.
With Nick Evers, another former Badger, as UConn’s starting quarterback, Bell has the potential for a significant season. Given that the minimum price for receivers is $3,000, Bell’s value at $3,800 is hard to ignore, especially if he’s projected to see around 10 targets. This makes him an ideal stacking option with Evers. I plan to stack both Drones with Felton and Evers with Bell in multiple GPP lineups, as both combinations should be relatively low-owned and offer considerable upside.
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Oronde Gadsden II ($3,500) - Syracuse vs. Ohio
Oronde Gadsden II, priced at $3,500, presents an exceptional value as one of the top wide receiver options. After suffering a foot injury early in Syracuse’s 2023 season that ended his campaign, Gadsden has fully recovered and is ready for 2024… even though this pricing doesn’t reflect that. Prior to the injury, he was a standout wideout with 61 receptions for 969 yards and six touchdowns in 2022.
With McCord at quarterback, Gadsden is expected to be a primary target in Syracuse’s passing game. Standing 6'5" and weighing 215 pounds, with speed in the 4.5s, Gadsden has the physical attributes and skills to make an impact against anyone, but especially this bad defense. Although Gadsden is likely to be a popular pick due to his low price and potential, he is a strong value play and worth the chalk. This “free square” should be a key component of your lineup. I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s owned in 80% of large-field GPP lineups.
That’s it for now! Like what you see or think I got something wrong? Hit me up on X @DanielKarpuc and let me know!