Juan Soto finally made his highly-anticipated free agency decision on Sunday night, signing a 15-year, $765 million deal with the New York Mets. As a result, he not only became the highest paid player in MLB history, but in professional sports history, in terms of total contract value.
The move comes as a bit of a surprise, considering that ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the New York Yankees offered him just $5 million less. Soto hit .288 with 41 homers and 109 RBI, leading New York to the World Series alongside AL MVP Aaron Judge last season, but he sought a fresh start with the Mets, who were not going to be outbid with billionaire owner Steve Cohen at the helm.
Across seven MLB seasons with the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres and Yankees, Soto has slashed .285/.421/.532 with 201 home runs, 592 RBI and 655 runs scored in 936 regular season games and .281/.389/.538 with 11 home runs, 30 RBI and 31 runs scored in 43 postseason games. He won a World Series with the Nationals in 2019 and is clearly destined for the Hall of Fame, showcasing a never-before-seen blend of plate discipline, power and production.
As a result of the deal, the Mets’ 2025 World Series winner odds moved drastically. New York was +1400 at DraftKings before the deal was announced and +800 after. FanDuel moved them from +1200 to +700, as did BetMGM.
While the move was one of the most impactful in recent memory, will it have a transformative impact on the Mets and get them over the hump? After all, they went on a magical run and made it to the NLCS before they were ousted by the World Series champion Dodgers in six games.
My answer is simply “no”.
Their starting pitching rotation leaves a lot to be desired. It now consists of Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes (who is converting from a reliever), Frankie Montas, Paul Blackburn and/or Tylor Megill. There are some major question marks in the bullpen. Pete Alonso is a free agent.
With Soto in the lineup, it’ll look something like this at the moment: 1. Francisco Lindor (SS), 2. Juan Soto (RF), 3. Mark Vientos (1B), 4. Brandon Nimmo (LF), 5. Starling Marte (DH), 6. Francisco Alvarez (C, Brett Baty (3B), Jose Siri (CF), Jeff McNeil (2B). Will that worry any pitching staff, especially in the middle and back end? I don’t think so.
There’s still plenty of time for free agent deals and trades to me made in the offseason and while the Soto signing is awesome for the Mets and their fans, let’s pump the brakes on this being a move that has a transformative impact on their World Series odds.
With their current pitching rotation, I wouldn’t be shocked if they missed the playoffs given how they stack up against other teams in the National League on paper.
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