Some years, the Preakness Stakes is a stone-cold lock. A heavy favorite who dusts the field while paying practically nothing as the overwhelming favorite.
You're paying to watch greatness with a guaranteed return of a mutual bond. Oh, maybe not the same superiority of Secretariat or Seattle Slew who once dominated the Old Hilltop course, but Saturday's race looks like a one-two favorite.
Epicenter over Secret Oath with Early Voting third.
The payoff won't be enough to hedge bets by boxing them in any order. This is one of those moments of taking a stand and grinding a profit. There's no value in betting long shots that lose.
Secret Oath and Early Voting are capable of winning. Rich Strike showed that by taking the Kentucky Derby at 80-1. Too bad his stable didn't want to validate the victory by seeking a Triple Crown.
The Preakness is made for Epicenter, who was second in the Derby. The shorter 1 3/16th mile race won't see him tire at the end. The sharper turns and small nine-horse field allows him to dictate the pace rather than endure the pinball lottery known as the 20-horse Derby.
The Preakness is a much fairer race than the Derby where luck plays a major factor. Pimlico's sharper turns punish outside runners.
Epicenter will let Early Voting take the early lead. The latter is a speedball, but still emerging after three starts where his last showed greenness when fading late. Epicenter will let the long shots and sprinters burn themselves out entering the final turn when Epicenter takes the lead.
Now the question is whether Secret Oath can catch Epicenter in the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is great with fillies. His Winning Colors won the 1988 Derby. Secret Oath took the Kentucky Oaks and was third against colts in the Arkansas Derby. She is a slow starter, though. The question is how much ground can Secret Oath make up late in the final sixteenth mile?
It looks like an 8-4-5 triple.
There's nothing wrong with shopping for value, though. Simplification suffered a horribly-wide trip in the Derby for fourth. The colt has versatile speed and could surprise from the front. Skippylongstocking could grab third to mess up triples. Otherwise, the rest are filled with hopes and dreams rather than grit and greatness.
On what promises to be a memorable Preakness for predicted 96-degree weather, this race will likely just be another annual contest lost among the race's 146 years. No signs of greatness, but at least a few respectable runners.
And maybe a short payoff so many bettors will at least leave with a few bucks.
Rick Snider has covered Washington sports since 1978. Follow him on Twitter: @Snide_Remarks.