The Nationals have named LHP Patrick Corbin as their Opening Day starter, which is great...maybe a few years ago, at least according to Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier, who just had to pile on what has been a rough run over the last few seasons for the lefty.
“Last year, he was named opening day starter,” Grant began, “and it went so well last season, and he responded so admirably and had such a productive year, that the Nationals have decided to run it back after his 6.31 ERA in 31 starts, his 210 hits in 150 innings, his 119 runs allowed and .321 average against.”
That latter number Grant called “something out of a video game,” and after he noted it was the second time in three years the league hit .300 or better against Corbin, all Danny Rouhier could add was “that guy wins the batting title!”
Indeed, Jeff McNeil won the NL batting title last year at .326, and a .321 average would’ve been third behind McNeil and Paul Goldschmidt.
Here’s the thing, though, as Danny pointed out: while it really doesn’t matter who starts Opening Day versus Game 2, 3, 4, or 5, there is a little bit of added stigma (good and bad) about a “tentpole” game – and that’s one area the Nationals seem to fail at.
“The Nationals have been really good at a lot of things. They’re going through it right now and wearing it, but they’re prioritizing correctly about the rebuild,” Danny said. “But they do this ceremonial thing way too often; you can pick a lot of examples, but when Jordan Zimmermann was their best pitcher, he didn’t start Game 1 of the postseason, Stephen Strasburg did.”
Danny was likely referencing 2014, when Zimmermann had a 2.66 ERA in 200 innings but Strasburg was the “ace” and thus got the ball in NLDS Game 1 against San Francisco, a series the Nats lost 3-1 (and saw both Strasburg and Zimmermann pitch well in their one start).
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Once upon a time, Corbin was a pitcher worth the six-year, $140 million deal he signed prior to 2019, and yes, it was the trio of him, Strasburg, and Max Scherzer that carried the Nationals to the championship that one season.
That was four seasons ago now, though, and since that title, Corbin is 17-42 with a 5.38 ERA in 73 starts, and he’s led the league in losses, hits allowed, and earned runs allowed twice each – including all three categories last season.
“The Patrick Corbin era in time has expired, thank you for your service,” Danny said. “They don’t win the 2019 World Series without Patrick Corbin, who was instrumental in the flag that will forever fly, please and thank you. But it’s no longer a thing! It hasn’t worked in three seasons, and I don’t really care why. There are great excuses and reasons, I don’t care – it’s about the future, so let’s stop doing ceremony for ceremony’s sake, and giving a guy who isn’t good anymore the nod over someone who is ascending.”
Danny thinks “it’s Josiah Gray’s rotation right now” even though Gray (5.02 ERA, 1.359 WHIP, MLB-high 38 home runs allowed in 148 2/3 innings) wasn’t great in his true rookie year. Grant fired back that “we don’t know if Gray is going to be good yet,” and also said the same about MacKenzie Gore, who has yet to pitch as a National after coming over in the Juan Soto trade.
But, he agrees with the notion that Corbin’s time has passed.
“Here is what I know: Patrick Corbin, over the last three seasons, has a 5.82 ERA, and the best thing you can say about him is he doesn’t miss time; he takes the ball every fifth day, and keeps on chopping wood even though he knows he’s going to get kicked in the teeth,” Grant said. “But he has, routinely, for three years, been the worst pitcher in the NL for major stretches. Everything said about 2019 is true, and even knowing what I know, I still sign that deal, because the parade happened – but you don’t have to start him on Opening Day because he’s the oldest.”
So, even though Gray struggled, Gore hasn’t pitched, Trevor Williams isn’t an established starter, and whomever is the fifth starter is really the seventh (and ostensibly replacing the injured Strasburg and Cade Cavalli), Corbin shouldn’t just be given the nod because he’s Patrick Corbin, 2019 hero.
That said, there is still a place for him on this rebuilding Nationals team…for now.
“They have two years left on this deal, and I’m not sure if you’re advocating when you say his time is up that you want to cut him,” Grant said to Danny, “but I don’t think they should do that; he should be in the back of this rotation eating innings, because there is value to that. When he has a 7.00 ERA in a couple months and you’re going to the bullpen before the second inning a few starts in a row, then we can talk about moving him to the bullpen. That’s realistic this year, and maybe before next year, you eat the contract and have him go away.”
Just don’t, once again, let him start Opening Day.
“Opening Day is a party, the day you’re excited to go to the ballpark, watch baseball, and be happy,” Grant said. “It’s really hard to get excited to go to a game when Patrick Corbin is pitching, so please, Nationals, read the room. If you’re not going to spend money and we’re going to wait for the prospects, fine, but he doesn’t have to start Opening Day.”
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