Winning the Kentucky Derby is a combination of luck and skill, but luck will be the bigger factor in Saturday’s 19-horse field.
Forte is the favorite after five straight wins. He showed a lot of grit fighting through traffic in recent victories like the Florida Derby. But, traffic woes are harder to overcome in the year’s largest field. He’ll get blocked in the stretch to fall short.
Ditto for second-choice Tapit Trice. Trouble will find him.
Instead, either Kingsbarns steals it as the early frontrunner or Angel of Empire runs him down over the final eighth mile. The bet here – Angel of Empire’s late run wins over Tapit Trice and Forte for a 14-5-15 triple.
Go ahead, pick your favorite number, color or name. It wins almost as often as perusing past performances. Rich Strike won last year at 81-1 after entering the race the day before. He’s never won again. There’s a lot of luck in this game.
Kingsbarns is hoping to just shoot to the early lead and never look back. It happens about once per decade. That Kingsbarns ran a serious 98 speed rating in his third start makes him worthy, but if tiring, the colt doesn’t finish in the top four.
Instead, there’s a cavalry charge at the top of the stretch and who gets clear by the three-sixteenths pole decides the race. It seems like Forte and Tapit Trice just enjoy mixing it up between rivals with a lot of bumping and grinding. Meanwhile, they’re losing valuable time and ground.
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Look to the outside where Angel of Empire lives. He was four wide when winning the Arkansas Derby and five wide taking the Risen Star Stakes at Oaklawn Park and Fairgrounds respectively. It also never hurts running on different tracks before taking on the deeper Churchill Downs surface.
It’s a competitive field with a half dozen serious contenders. Mage is a nice 15-1 long shot, but toss the foreign horses that rarely do anything in Louisville.
Racing ahead, is Angel of Empire a Triple Crown contender? He has enough midrace tactical speed to handle the shorter Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16th mile – 1/16th mile shorter than the Derby. And, his continued maturity and strong finishes fare well for the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes.
All it takes is a little luck.
Follow Rick Snider on Twitter: @Snide_Remarks
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