WaPo’s Neil Greenberg checks in with BMitch & Finlay every Wednesday to look at the Commanders by the analytics – but you don’t need to crunch the numbers to know that the No. 2 pick is the second most valuable asset behind No. 1, and it means you only need to have choice A and choice B, with even the latter somewhat unnecessary if No. 1 is a lock.
Greenberg thinks one thing is a lock for the Commanders, though: if they have No. 2, their pick should be whichever remaining quarterback they have rated the highest.
In discussing the loss to the Niners at the top of his segment, Greenberg noted ‘a loss was good for this team, because now they have a real good chance of getting the No. 2 pick, which could be huge for the future of the franchise.”
It’s pretty much between the Commanders and Patriots for No. 2 even if all three 4-12 teams lose, as Arizona’s strength of schedule will be tough to get down enough to move up, and Greenberg thinks ‘that’s where we’re headed, and it would be sensational.’
And when it does?
“I’ve done this a bunch of times in terms of analytical pieces, and nobody outsmarts the draft; over time, almost everybody has a mixed record when it comes to selecting players overall,” Greenberg said. “The draft is tough to beat and that's why trading back provides you so much more value, because you get more bites at the apple, more chances to hit on players. I’ve heard some people saying that they want Washington to trade up to No. 1, and I don’t see that happening, but at No. 2, you don't wanna be in this position again because you're rebuilding, so I really do think that you have to take the swing on a quarterback.”
Analytics will play a role in the choice for sure, but if you get the QB, then how do you rebuild around him?
“I think the value of getting a quarterback on a below market contract is probably the most valuable piece of the puzzle. So, if you do draft the guy at No. 2 and he turns out to be the guy, or at least a very good quarterback, the amount of money you're paying him relative to the market is very low,” Greenberg said. “So, that allows you to use all the salary cap dollars that you have elsewhere to build around them, and as long as they don't foolishly spend the money – which I don’t think thy well, although it’s tough with all that cap space to not overpay players by nature – you have the most valuable piece in the sport at a below-market rate, and then you go from there and make good choices.”
