The Junkies welcomed in Rotoworld’s Zachary Krueger – a Maryland guy who is a ‘long-time listener, first-time caller’ to the Junks – Thursday to take a deep dive into why Sam Howell was sacked nine times last Sunday, and what went wrong.
And that deep dive started at UNC.
“Everyone is talking about that and understandably so, and I started picking through this year’s stats – but I reached a point where I had to ask myself how long that idea of Howell holding onto the ball for a long time has been a thing,” Krueger said. “One of the things I’ve looked at in terms of evaluating QB prospects is PFF’s pressure-to-sack ratio, and with Howell, he ranked third, seventh, and second in his three years – in this case, that’s among the worst in the nation.”
Of 102 QBs drafted from 2015 on, it’s no shock that names like Mahomes, Herbert, et al. – successful NFL QBs – had pressure-to-sack rates below 20 percent from college and into the pros. Howell is 26.7 percent, which is fourth-worst, with some of the names in the bottom 10 are guys you may have legit never heard of, and as a junior, he was worst in the nation at 30.7 percent.
“This is a stat that has carried over from college to the NFL fairly well, and it’s legitimately my biggest concern with Howell,” Krueger said. “He was consistently tops in the nation in terms of putting himself in pressure situations, and for me, I see a lot of what you guys see in Howell in terms of arm talent and toughness, and he was always rather low in turnover-worthy plays, but if you talk about this, it’s a fatal flaw if it ended up remaining consistent, and I question if he can unlearn something.”
The junior year stat can hopefully be mitigated by the loss of many of his weapons at UNC, as EB pointed out, but only six college QBs since 2015 have had a ratio over 30, so it’s still a number to look at.
Here’s the perhaps bigger crux of the issue, though:
“We talk about him holding the ball too long…when he was in college, he was 24th, 13th, and 12th among 60 QBs in the Power 5 in terms of time holding the ball, and this year in the NFL, he is Top 10 in both time to throw and average time before a sack,” Krueger said. “He’s had time, in theory, as they’re only allowing 11 hurries per game per PFF, which is a stat indicative of offensive line struggles, and he’s also among the tops in the league of putting himself in pressure situations.”
Take a listen to Krueger’s entire deep dive into Howell’s issues above!
