Neil Greenberg is BMitch & Finlay’s resident analytics guru, but when he joined the guys Wednesday to look at Jayden Daniels ahead of Monday night’s visit to Cincinnati, well…he doesn’t need numbers to relay what he’s seeing.
“The numbers like the betting markets and some of the underlying metrics aren't real favorable for Washington – I have them as a bottom-four team in that regard – but I think there's a lot of context that needs to be put around Washington and their performance, and Jayden Daniels’ performance,” Greenberg said. “I don't think this is a team that you can really analyze with the metrics the way we can a more established team like the Bills or the Eagles. I think there's just a lot happening with Washington that is divorcing their actual performance from the underlying stats to what the coaches are trying to do with this team this season.”
A little clarification on that, Neil?
“Jayden’s performance looks good or poor depending on what you're looking at; the game charts of Pro Football Focus and ESPN’s Total QBR have him as below average, but you can see the coaches are trying to bring him along slowly,” Greenberg said. “For example, in the first quarter, he's seeing a lot of zone coverage, so they're trying to get quicker passes out, sometimes at or behind the line of scrimmage, so his average depth of field or depth of target isn't that far. He's not gonna look successful on paper doing that, but he's seeing zone coverage about 80 percent of the time in the first quarter, and then it starts to open up as the defenses see what he's doing and kind of transition more man coverage – and once we see that, he starts to open it up a little bit.”
Greenberg gets the vision of development for Daniels, so in his mind, in a statement Brian Mitchell surely loved, the metrics don’t matter.
“I can see the vision of the coaching staff and what they're trying to do, and I don't necessarily think the metrics matter, because you have a rookie quarterback that they are trying to get to learn the NFL,” Greenberg said. “So, I don't really think that you can look at Washington and say they are four points worse than an average team or two points better than an average team or whatever; you have to look at them as, this is a team in transition trying to bring along a rookie quarterback. Some games it's gonna work, some games that isn't, but really the main thread for this season is get Jayden through the season healthy and see some progression from Game 1 to Game 17.”
So, then, what is the eye test showing Greenberg?
“I think he's looked good. He's running the football, he's showing that he can make some throws, and he's obviously the best of the rookie quarterbacks this season, so I think he’s doing fine,” Greenberg said. “He doesn't have many of what PFF says are turnover-worthy throws, he only has one, so I really do think there's a lot to like for what Jayden Daniels is doing. I’d like to see them open the offense a little bit more a little bit earlier, but again, the coaching staff knows their players better than I do, so I think that so far, he's looking really good. He’s not getting himself into trouble or making bonehead plays, and he’s showing he can make the transition from college to the pros and navigate the NFL.”
Of course Brian then railed a bit on analytics, but you can hear that and all of Greenberg’s visit with the guys above!