Maybe it was Peter King announcing the end of his iconic weekly NFL column. Or perhaps it was having him on the show with Danny Wednesday evening. Color me inspired. Here are 5 things I think I think about the offseason ahead.
1) The Bears are trading Justin Fields and drafting Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick.
The discourse on this baffles me. My theory? People suggest this is a difficult debate for Bears GM Ryan Poles because it’s good pre-draft fodder and interest. Fields took 3.23 seconds to throw the ball this season (45th among QBs) while completing just 61 percent of his passes. It’s been three seasons. Yes, he’s improving, but he has not done enough to bypass a potential generational talent with the top pick.
2) Drake Maye is going to be a stud.
The more I study Maye’s game, the more I like him. His 79 big-time throws in his final two collegiate seasons are 20 more than any other first-round QB prospect since 2020. Maye’s a way better athlete and runner than people/ think as well. He moved the chains with scrambles on third and fourth down 42 times over the past two seasons. That’s almost more first down scrambles on the money downs than Jayden Daniels (22) and Caleb Williams (23) combined. He is also the highest-graded QB by PFF on throws within 2.5 seconds of the snap since 2022. At his best, he’s very aware of what’s going on pre-snap and decisive when he gets the ball. I have long comped Maye to Justin Herbert. His arm is big and his prototype body is bigger.
3) The Commanders should sign Jets DE Bryce Huff.
Huff, 25, becomes a free agent next month after a breakout fourth season in New York. I’ve seen many analysts point out that Huff’s 10 sacks in 2023 were a clear outlier after three campaigns tallying just 2.0, 2.0 and 3.5 sacks. But I don’t think that’s fair. The Memphis product had strong underlying pass rush metrics in 2022 that served as a precursor for what followed this past season.
His pass rush win rate (23.1%) and some of his other underlying peripherals will impress the folks in Eugene Shen’s office more than his sack totals have.
I expect him to garner a deal that pays him a little under $20M a season and the Commanders should be willing to engage him at that rate.
4) Kirk Cousins should stay in Minnesota.
I’m sure the idea of signing with the Falcons is appealing to Cousins, a 10th-year starter coming off an Achilles tear. Atlanta’s new head coach (Raheem Morris) is one of longtime Cousins-advocate Kyle Shanahan’s best friends, and Cousins’ wife is from the Atlanta area. Plus the Falcons are in a bad division and play the majority of their schedule indoors every season. But if Cousins walks away from Minnesota he’d leave behind an excellent situation. Kevin O’Connell is a sharp head coach and a creative play designer who meshes well with Cousins. The Vikings are also home to one of the NFL’s ascending receiver rooms: Justin Jefferson is a superstar and Jordan Addison will be a standout. And, TJ Hockenson (recovering from an ACL tear) is one of the game’s best weapons at tight end. The club’s defense also made major strides under Brian Flores last season. Cousins has never had the help around him he could have in 2024 if he remains in purple.
5) The Dolphins will regret the massive deal they’re likely to give Tua.
Did anybody see the Spotrac contract projection for the Tua Tagovailoa extension looming in Miami? If you keep up with the quarterback market, the predicted deal wasn’t surprising, but it’s still jarring. You can know how much houses are selling for in your neighborhood and still be stunned when you hear that your buddy’s mediocre spot just went for $850K, you know what I mean? Spotrac suggested that a Tua extension would net him $220M over four years and that it could include $165M in practical guarantees. Tagovailoa has posted gaudy numbers since Mike McDaniel arrived in Miami but few quarterbacks have benefited more from play-calling and dynamic wide receiver play than the former Alabama lefty. I’m not saying Tagovailoa, just 25 and the NFL leader in passing yards last season, isn’t a quality starter. He’s proven that in the Dolphins’ offense, with their supporting cast and McDaniel calling plays, he can shine. But can he win cold weather games against stellar defenses in the postseason? Is he a “let’s pay him all the money” guy? Not for me.
