After 16 weeks, 15 games, 11 starting quarterbacks (and 12 total seeing action), and no one at or above .500 since Week 2…the NFC East race is down to three.
Dallas’ Week 16 win over Philadelphia eliminated the Eagles from division title contention, but thanks to Washington’s loss to Carolina and the Giants’ loss to Baltimore, the Cowboys, WFT, and Big Blue are all alive entering Week 17.
After Week 16, the NFC East standings look like this:
Washington 6-9 (3-2 Division)
Dallas 6-9 (2-3 Division, lost twice to Washington)
NY Giants 5-10 (3-2 Division)
Philadelphia 4-10-1 (3-2 Division) *ELIMINATED*
Week 17 sees Washington at Philly and Dallas at the Giants, and with nine possible game outcomes, Washington wins the division if five of them occur. Because the WFT swept Dallas, they are in with a win regardless of the Cowboys/Giants result – at 7-9, they either win outright or win via head-to-head tiebreaker over Dallas - or can get in if they tie and the Giants either beat or tie Dallas.
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The Giants have only one path – they need a win and a Philadelphia win, which would make three teams 6-10 and give them the tiebreaker based on going 3-1 against the other two teams - while Dallas has three paths to the playoffs.
Here are the nine scenarios, and who wins the division in each:
Washington win/any NYG-DAL result: WFT (7-9, outright or by tiebreaker)
Philly/Dallas win: Dallas (7-9 outright)
Philly/New York win: New York (6-10, wins three-team tiebreaker)
Philly win/Dallas and New York tie: Dallas (6-9-1 outright)
Philly and WFT tie/Dallas win: Dallas (7-9 outright)
Philly and WFT tie/New York win: Washington (6-9-1 outright)
Two ties: Washington (6-9-1, wins head-to-head tiebreaker over 6-9-1 Dallas)
With all those scenarios, two things are true: there be a new division champion (meaning the 2001-04 Eagles remain the last repeat champs), and the NFC East is guaranteed to have, at best, a tie for the worst record ever by a division champion in the 16-game era.
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Only two sub-.500 teams have won a division, the 2010 Seahawks (7-9) and the 2014 Panthers (7-8-1). Both of those previous teams won their Wild Card weekend game, though, and given this is 2020, anything can happen on any given Sunday (or Saturday, depending on game times on Wild Card weekend).
And if you’re a bettor, well, BetOnline.ag’s incredibly early Week 17 lines (released just after the late games ended) have Dallas (-1) and Philly (-2) as the favorites.
Follow Lou DiPietro on Twitter: @LouDiPietroWFAN
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