Tropical Storm Helene has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane before slamming into Florida this week.
People in the North Central Florida, Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the central and eastern Gulf coast need to complete preparations for major hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive by Thursday.
Hurricane WARNINGS now posted for Nature Coast and Big Bend coast from from the Anclote River to Mexico Beach.
A Storm Surge WARNING has been issued from Flamingo to Indian Pass, Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
A Tropical Storm WARNING has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County Line.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coasts of Florida and Georgia from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line northward to the Savannah River, and for Lake Okeechobee.
WIND:
Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts across inland FL along the I75 corridor. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural damage.
Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
-Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.
FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across inland FL. Potential
impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
-Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited to significant impacts across remainder of FL.
TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts.
Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.
OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business.
When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm.
If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of others.
When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe.
Be sure to let friends and family members know of your intentions for weathering the storm and your whereabouts. Have someone located away from the threatened area serve as your point of contact. Share vital contact information with others. Keep cell phones handy and charged.
Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast.
The western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico has been an area highlighted by AccuWeather meteorologists as a hot spot for tropical activity since the middle of September.
Showers and thunderstorms quickly gathered over the weekend in the western Caribbean and adjacent land areas in Central America. Localized flash flooding and mudslides will occur in areas surrounding the western Caribbean from Jamaica and Cuba to southeastern Mexico, Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua.
AccuWeather began designating the brewing system as a tropical rainstorm this past weekend to raise public awareness and issue its own track map to help people and officials plan ahead. On Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued an advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. When it is upgraded to a tropical storm with sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it will be given a name.
The next name on the list is Helene.
"The combination of deep warm water (ocean heat content) and low disruptive breezes (wind shear), should assist in rapid strengthening when over the Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday to Thursday," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
AccuWeather is expecting the storm to make landfall as a major hurricane of Category 3 strength (sustained winds of 111-129 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. However, it could reach Category 4 status (130-156 mph) at some point while it is over the Gulf of Mexico.
At this time, the storm's eye is most likely to track along the Gulf coast from the eastern tip of Louisiana to the central part of the Florida Peninsula.
The highest landfall probability at this time is somewhere along the coast of the Florida Panhandle late Thursday. A track into the Florida Peninsula could mean an earlier landfall Thursday.
However, people should not just focus on where the eye could make landfall.
"This can be a large storm with life-threatening impacts such as storm surge and flooding rain hundreds of miles away from where the storm makes landfall – be sure to know the risks you can face in your community," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said.
There is a significant risk to lives and property with the upcoming hurricane in the U.S.
The current rainstorm, soon to become a major hurricane, is initially rated as a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
This scale incorporates much more than the Saffir-Simpson scale, which is based on wind intensity alone.
The RealImpact scale weighs in storm surge, flooding rain, economic loss and population affected in addition to damaging wind gusts and tornadoes produced by a tropical system. It is possible the RealImpact may be pushed higher.
A storm surge of 10-15 feet is anticipated near and just east of where the eye rolls ashore. At this time, the level of storm surge is most likely in the Big Bend area of Florida. However, a significant storm surge of up to 6 feet will likely occur through the Tampa area and perhaps as far to the west as Pensacola, Florida, depending on the hurricane track.
Wind gusts frequenting 100-140 mph are forecast near where the storm lands, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust of 160 mph.
Widespread power outages are anticipated near north and east of where the eye makes landfall.
Near where the hurricane makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is forecast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 24 inches. A pocket of 8-12 inches of rain is also likely in the southern Appalachians and Piedmont.
Even as the storm loses wind intensity after moving well inland, the likelihood of heavy rain will continue. Typically in the hours and days after landfall, the heaviest rain shifts to the north and west of the storm center.
"There is the risk for major flooding in parts of the Southeast late Thursday into Friday, including the Atlanta area as well as the steep terrain of the southern Appalachians, where the flooding risk can be especially elevated as well as the risk for mudslides and rockslides," Porter said.
Some of the heaviest rainfall hundreds of miles from the Gulf Coast may steer across the Tennessee, lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys. Flooding along some of the secondary rivers is possible, but a moderate rise on the Ohio and Mississippi rivers would be welcomed by tug and barge operations that cost-effectively transport goods. Low water levels for the third year in a row have been restricting these operations.
Heavy rain may fall as far to the west as part of the Ozark Mountains in Missouri and Arkansas late this week.
Even if the storm steers northwestward for a time after landfall, a zone of heavy rain will break out farther to the east as a plume of moisture streams in from the Atlantic along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
Prior to the upcoming major hurricane strike, the strongest storm to make landfall in the U.S. was Francine as a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Francine struck the Louisiana coast during the late afternoon hours of Sept. 11.
