The Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will square off in Super Bowl LV. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites, so neither outcome will produce a big upset in the betting market.
However, sizeable underdogs have won outright in past Super Bowls. We recap the five biggest upsets in Super Bowl history.
Super Bowl III: Baltimore Colts -18 vs. New York Jets (Jets win 16-7)
The famous Joe Namath game. The Colts had dominated the league for much of the season, winning by an average margin of more than 18 points per game heading into Super Bowl III.
However, the Jets' QB wasn’t bothered by the spread (Second largest in SB history). Namath was so confident that he guaranteed a victory despite catching 18 points.
Well, maybe people should’ve listened to Broadway Joe.
Namath and the Jets jumped out to a 7-0 lead at half, and the game was never really in question. In the fourth quarter, Namath didn’t need to do much but hand the ball off. He didn’t throw a single pass in the final frame as the Jets burnt the clock and won the franchise’s only Super Bowl in one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.
Super Bowl IV: Minnesota Vikings -12 vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs win 23-7)
People who cashed out on Jets money line either thought there was no way a double-digit underdog was winning outright again, or felt they had to bet the Chiefs ML out of respect. Well, if you stuck with the system, you popped off again.
After the AFL Jets beat the NFL Colts in 1969, no one expected it to happen again, but the result was very similar. The Chiefs put up a wire-to-wire victory over Minnesota.
Kansas City was up 16-0 at half and closed out an easy victory, making it back-to-back for the AFL. This Super Bowl was actually the last of its kind as the NFL-AFL merger happened in the following offseason.
Super Bowl XXXII: Green Bay Packers -11 vs. Denver Broncos (Broncos win 31-24)
This game was expected to be a coronation for the Packers. Quarterback Brett Favre had won three straight MVPs and the Packers were looking to make it back-to-back Super Bowl titles.
Meanwhile, John Elway was still trying to win the big one. He had come up short in his three previous Super Bowl appearances in 1987, 1988, and 1990. Now, in 1998, he had one last run in him.
On the field, Terrell Davis put on a performance for the ages. The Broncos’ running back battled a migraine and reportedly lost vision at one point in the game, but that didn’t stop him from running for 157 yards on 30 carries with three touchdowns.
Fun fact: the Broncos win snapped 13 straight Super Bowl victories for the NFC. Denver would also go on to win the Super Bowl the next season, covering as -7.5 favorites against the Falcons, 34-19 in what would be Elway's final game.
Super Bowl XXXVI: St. Louis Rams -14 vs. New England Patriots (Patriots win 20-17)
It sounds crazy to say in 2021 that Tom Brady would be getting two touchdowns in any game, but that was the case in his first Super Bowl appearance. The Pats were catching 14 points against Kurt Warner and the Rams' offense, known as the “Greatest Show on Turf.”
Brady and the Patriots escaped the infamous “Tuck Rule” game and defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road to earn a trip to the Super Bowl. But no one really gave them a chance against the high powered Rams offense.
However, turnovers plagued St. Louis all night, including a 47-yard pick-six for Patriots CB Ty Law that gave New England a 10-0 lead. The difference in the game was the Rams committed three turnovers and the Patriots had none.
Brady and the Pats were able to hang on, winning 20-17, leading to a two-decade long New England dynasty.
Super Bowl XLII: New England Patriots -12 vs. New York Giants (Giants win 17-14)
Super Bowl XLII was setting up to be the crowning achievement of Brady’s career. With a record of 18-0, the Patriots were on pace to become the second team in NFL history to go undefeated, and the first to finish 19-0. Oddsmakers thought it was a near certainty, installing New England as 12-point favorites over the New York Giants.
The Giants hung tough with the Patriots at home in Week 17, even taking a lead into the fourth quarter before New England secured a 38-35 victory, failing to cover as 13.5-point favorites.
Our own Thomas Casale was in the Giants' locker room after the game and noted, "I've never seen a losing team so happy. The players just kept saying, 'We'll see them again in a few weeks.' Ironically, the Week 17 loss gave the Giants confidence they could beat the Pats in the Super Bowl."
In the rematch, the Giants dominated at the line of scrimmage, sacking Brady five times. The defense did its job, and it was on Eli Manning and the offense to make one drive in the final minutes to secure the upset.
In one of the most incredible catches in NFL history, New York receiver David Tyree hauled in a Manning pass against his helmet. After that, Manning found Plaxico Burress in the corner of the end zone for a touchdown.
Giants win Super Bowl XLII
New York pulled out the 17-14 victory in the modern day David vs. Goliath story.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary