Only two teams had a worse over record than the Washington Commanders (5-11-1) in NFL totals betting last season. If history repeats itself for teams in the first year of new ownership, over tickets will struggle to cash in Commanders’ games again this season.
The $6.05-billion sale of the Commanders in July was the eighth change — for eight different franchises — in majority ownership for an NFL team over the last 20 years.
In the seven previous instances, the over is a combined 41-71-1 (.371) in the first year after the sale.
That’s the most notable NFL betting trend for teams under new ownership. Elsewhere, it’s been a mixed bag of immediate improvement on the field and at the sportsbook for first-year NFL owners.
None of those seven teams finished above .500 to the over in the first year with a new owner:
Denver Broncos (2022): 6-11
Carolina Panthers (2018): 8-8
Buffalo Bills (2014): 3-13
Cleveland Browns (2012): 6-10
Jacksonville Jaguars (2012): 7-9
Miami Dolphins (2008): 6-10
Minnesota Vikings (2005): 5-10-1
Only the Jaguars started with an over. The other seven teams cashed under tickets in Week 1 of those respective seasons.
Most recently, the Broncos’ under hit by 10.5 points in last year’s Week 1 loss en route to the fourth-worst over/under plus-minus in the NFL. Only the Tennessee Titans (-3.7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.8), and New York Jets (-3.8) whiffed on overs by a higher average margin than the Broncos (-3.5)
As of July 31 1 at the BetMGM online sportsbook, the total is 40 for the Commanders’ Week 1 home game against the Arizona Cardinals.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated NFL odds, sports betting promotions, and more.
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