Kurt Warner is a Hall of Famer who came out of almost nowhere – from undrafted out of Northern Iowa to three years in the Arena League and a stint in NFL Europe to Super Bowl champ – so he understands that just because a QB isn’t heralded, doesn’t mean they can’t become a star in the right offense.
And as he told Kevin Sheehan Friday, the guy from this draft class he sees himself in is?
“I really like Michael Penix Jr., and I’m probably putting him third on my list just off of tape and how he played, and watching him at the Combine,” Warner said. “The hard thing with college offenses is they're so different than what the NFL does in terms of processing, asking you to read a whole bunch of different concepts, and Penix was more of a downfield thrower – and that's what I thought I did the best was that second-level type throw. And then, the pacing on the football is what I really love with Penix. I got a son that plays quarterback and so I'm always telling him I want the ball firm but soft; he always argues that that's not physics and it's not possible, but I believe it is – it’s the ability to have this firm throw that's not going to die on you, that's not gonna hang on you, but it’s also got a touch to it where it's not heavy and it's not hard and it doesn't seem to be coming fast with really tight rotations that make it hard to catch. When I watched Penix throw in person, that's what I saw, is that great pace on the ball, but he didn't overwhelm you with the throw. I think that was a big reason why his downfield throws were so good and so consistent at the college level. He lays it in there perfectly, understanding how to put the ball in a position where his guy can adjust to it.
Every ball he threw had the same pact on it, and there are so many things like that that I would liken to kind of how I played.”
That said, he also understands why Penix isn’t in the top-tier conversation.
“I like a lot about him, but I know people are going to be concerned about the injuries, and I think you have to be with that many season-ending injuries, so I unfortunately believe that the tape's not going to speak the loudest with Michael,” Warner said. “I think he's really, really good and I think he does a lot of things really well, and I hope he's got a 15-year career with no more injuries, but knowing NFL teams, they're just not willing to take that chance that high. So I just don't think he's going to go as high as his tape probably should put him.”
There’s also ‘a lot to like’ with J.J. McCarthy, who is kind of in between the nominal top tier and the Penix-Bo Nix group, but if Caleb Williams is obviously No. 1 and he likes Penix third-best, who is the guy Warner sees best fitting Washington at No. 2?
“All of these guys have some work to do to get better at the NFL level; there's nobody that I look at and say it's a finished product, or a guy like an Andrew Luck that can come right in and he's a pro and gonna roll – but Jayden Daniels, to me, had the best tape from last year,” Warner said. “Not a real surprise winning the Heisman and everything, but he had the best tape, and was the most consistent. He had games that you're just like, wow, but my question with him is that he's only done it the one year. That doesn't mean that's not who he's gonna be the rest of his career, Joe Burrow had that and is the guy, but that was such a breakout incredible year that I just sit back and go okay, is that what he's going to be at the next level, or was that just something that came together and his norm is a step back from that. I want to believe that Jayden Daniels just kind of came into his own, figured out who he was, the whole game came together and we're gonna get that at the next level. You wonder if he can sustain the pounding week in and week out at the NFL level, but on tape, I would say that would be my choice. That would excite me enough to say I can't pass on that guy.”
With Drake Maye, Warner says, he understands the allure of the physical traits and some incredible throws, but “there were a number of technical flaws in his game that make me pause.’
“If you're not technically sound, I don't care what level you're playing at, you're gonna miss and you're gonna have issues, and times where you miss layups,” Warner said. “You can't miss layups at the NFL level. You have to be able to make those things most of the time and you gotta be ready to play fast and you gotta have technique.”
Warner says he’s ‘not a big ceiling guy’ because saying that about anyone is misleading – ‘you don’t know what it means, so it’s more about which one is closest to their ceiling, more of the finished product right now,’ which is why he leans Daniels.
“I want the guy that can mentally process better than the guy that's physically more talented, because I believe that at this level is going to win more often than just the physical piece,” Warner said.
No matter who the pick is, though, one thing we as fans have to have with him is patience.
“Nowadays we want to make these young quarterbacks like ‘hey, you gotta be a Hall of Famer right now or you're not good enough,’” Warner said. “Instead of trying to thrust that on them so quickly, we should be going, ‘hey, let's give these guys three or four years, let them be complimentary pieces, have a team around them that can win and allow them to learn how to play and then they can show us who they're going to be.’”
Listen to Warner’s entire 30-minute chat with Kevin above!