The thing about perception is this: It is also reality. But is that the case with Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell, the 144th overall selection (Round 5) of the 2021 NFL Draft.
You, see, would the perception around the quarterback, who just completed his second NFL season and first as the starter, be the same if he had been one of the first 32 selections two years ago? Well, one listener wrote into the Kevin Sheehan Show and took that a step farther.
"Kevin, be honest, what would we think of Sam Howell if he had been a Top 10 pick, which at one point he was supposed to be taken in the Top 10, instead of a fifth-rounder?" listener Jack's email reads. "My answer: optimistic and excited to see him with Kliff Kingsbury."
Well, before examining Howell entering year 3 of his career, let's examine the numbers for Howell's 2023 season: 17 starts (the first Washington quarterback to start every game for the franchise since Kirk Cousins in 2017), with 388 completions on an NFL-leading 612 attempts (63.4 percent) for 3,946 yards (6.4 yards per attempt) with 21 touchdowns and an NFL-leading 21 interceptions.
He posted a 78.9 passer rating and a 42.3 (out of 100) QBR. He was also sacked an NFL-leading 65 times for a loss of 449 yards, giving him a 5.17 net yards gained per pass attempt.
On Pro Football Focus, his 60.3 offense grade was 33rd out of 38 quarterbacks. Two places ahead of the No. 1 overall pick last year Bryce Young, but 20 spots behind No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud, the two qualifying first-round rookie QBs selected last year. (Will Levis, selected early in the second round, was the 30th-graded passer.)
Sheehan said the simple truth: Last year provided a lot of evidence as to why Howell fell "round by round by round" from that one-time Top 10 designation to being the sixth quarterback taken in a weak 2022 draft class.
Kenny Picket, the first quarterback taken that year, was picked No. 20, which Sheehan noted was the latest a quarterback was picked in a quarter-century.
"Sam Howell went in the fifth round of a draft that had no quarterbacks in it," Sheehan added. "The perception was worst quarterback draft of all time. And, oh by the way, it's not like there weren't teams with quarterback needs."
Of course, that draft does have an example of teams getting it wrong as Brock Purdy was the last pick and he just went to a Super Bowl with San Francisco, but of course, time will tell on his career.
But, Jack's email to Sheehan represents the sunk-cost fallacy, when a person is allowing the investment made in something (say a Top 10 or first-round pick) to deter them from abandoning what is clearly no longer a worthwhile investment (Howell being the starting quarterback for Washington in 2024).
"I wouldn't be, Jack, as you stated optimistic and excited," Sheehan said, "I would be disappointed so far. I'd be concerned. And I wouldn't hesitate about picking a quarterback at No. 2 in the draft this year if I thought that quarterback offered a much bigger upside than Sam... would not think twice"
He concluded: "Disappointed, concerned, and looking for his replacement."
Listen to the full conversation from the Kevin Sheehan Show on the audio player above!
