Wild weather is whipping through the U.S. this weekend, from snow on the West Coast to rain in the South and record-breaking warm temperatures in the eastern portion of the country. Now, new weather could bring more surprises.
“A rare ‘super El Niño’ is to blame for all the rain we got this week in Southern California,” explained Audacy station KNX in Los Angeles. “But the weather pattern may soon give way to its drier sister, La Niña.”
According to a Thursday update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean,” last month due to El Niño. It is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
El Niño usually happens every two to seven years, and its impact can extend beyond the Pacific Ocean. In a report issued Feb. 5, the NOAA said that El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons.
“The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to (El Niño – the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024,” said the NOAA this week. It also said there is historical evidence that La Niña follows strong El Niño events, but that there is still some uncertainty about what’s to come.
Currently, experts expect a 55% chance of La Niña conditions developing this summer. Conditions next winter are even more difficult to predict, but experts cited by AccuWeather said La Niña conditions could bring more severe winter to the northern part of the country late this year and early next year.
“La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño. During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface,” explained the NOAA. “These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward. This tends to lead to drought in the southern U.S. and heavy rains and flooding in the Pacific Northwest and Canada. During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North. La Niña can also lead to a more severe hurricane season.”