The Chicago Cubs reportedly made a massive offer to shortstop Javier Báez prior to the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and increasingly you wonder if he should have accepted it.
We don't know exact terms of how much the Cubs offered Báez, but Buster Olney of ESPN wrote over the weekend that the two-time All-Star turned down a proposal "somewhere in the range of $180 million." Audacy Sports MLB Insider Jon Heyman hears that Báez turned down an offer "in $160-$170 million range," saying the decision came last spring.
Either way, Báez turned down a boatload of money, and a deal that almost certainly would have guaranteed him six seasons. The former NLCS MVP is making $11.65 million in his final year of arbitration, but he has some work to do if he hopes to see an offer anything like the one he turned down.
While Báez did still win a Gold Glove Award in 2020, he struggled mightily at the plate, slashing .203/.238/.360. One could write that off to the unique length of last season, but Báez is off to another slow start at the plate in 2021. In 74 games since the start of the 2020 season, Báez has hit just .205 with a very underwhelming .625 OPS. In the two prior seasons, he hit .286 with an .865 OPS.
On one hand, Francisco Lindor's 10-year/$341 million extension could help Báez tremendously. Even at his best, he's not the same player as Lindor, but the market has been raised for all shortstops, and any team that may have hoped to sign Lindor next offseason will now have to pivot to another shortstop.
On the other hand, Báez has to produce for any of this conversation to matter. Between 2018 and 2019, FanGraphs graded Báez as the sixth-best offensive shortstop in baseball. Since 2020, though, Báez checks in as just the 22nd best offensive performer. Assuming he reaches free agency, the 28-year-old will have a tough time making the case that he's a better free-agent option than any of Corey Seager, Carlos Correa or Trevor Story, all of whom can also test free agency after the 2021 season. Heck, Marcus Semien and Andrelton Simmons could be more cost-effective options at the position than Báez.
Many players - Lindor, Max Scherzer, Bryce Harper - have turned down massive extension offers from their original teams, only to find greener pastures with another organization. It feels safe to say that Báez isn't currently on that trajectory.
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