Pro Picks: Packers will edge out the Commanders

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Micah Parsons ran down Jared Goff for his first sack with the Green Bay Packers.

Now, he’ll be chasing Jayden Daniels.

Fresh off a convincing victory over the two-time defending NFC North champion Lions, the Packers (1-0) host the Washington Commanders (1-0) on Thursday night to kick off Week 2.

The Commanders ran for 220 yards, including 68 by Daniels, in their win over the Giants. Without Kenny Clark stuffing the middle, the Packers still shut down Detroit’s run game.

Parsons played 45% of the snaps just 10 days after the two-time All-Pro pass rusher was acquired from Dallas in a blockbuster deal. He should see more action on short rest.

The Packers are 3 1/2-point favorites, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Since 2019, road teams are 46-31-1 against the spread on Thursday night, including Dallas covering last week.

Pro Picks sees a close one.

Packers: 23-21

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas

Line: Chargers minus 3 1/2

Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers (1-0) sent a message with their victory over the Chiefs in Brazil. They’re a serious contender to prevent Kansas City from a 10th straight AFC West title. Herbert & Co. can’t afford a letdown against Pete Carroll’s Raiders, who aren’t going to be pushovers this season. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC West opponents. The Raiders are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 Monday night games.

Best Bet: CHARGERS: 30-23

Atlanta at Minnesota

Line: Vikings minus 3 1/2

Michael Penix Jr. played well in Atlanta’s disappointing loss against Tampa Bay. The Falcons (0-1) need to get Bijan Robinson going against a tough defense. J.J. McCarthy bounced back from a slow start to lead the Vikings (1-0) to an impressive comeback win in his first NFL start. Trends favor Minnesota. The Falcons are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.

The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in September. But Pro Picks expects Atlanta to benefit from Minnesota coming off a short week following an emotional Monday night road win.

Upset Special: FALCONS, 23-20

Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee

Line: Rams minus 5 1/2

The Rams’ ferocious defense frustrated C.J. Stroud. It could be a rough day for rookie Cam Ward, who nearly led the Titans to an upset at Denver. The Rams (1-0) have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games while Tennessee (0-1) is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.

RAMS: 24-16

New York Giants at Dallas

Line: Cowboys minus 6

Russell Wilson and New York’s offense got off to a lackluster start in Week 1. The Giants (0-1) have a strong pass rush that could put plenty of pressure on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys (0-1) had a chance to stun the Eagles in the opener but missed a few opportunities, including rare drops by CeeDee Lamb. Dallas has won 15 of 16 and eight in a row in the series.

COWBOYS: 24-19

San Francisco at New Orleans

Line: 49ers minus 3

The 49ers (1-0) already are dealing with several injuries, including losing George Kittle for at least four weeks. Now, they could be without Brock Purdy. Coach Kyle Shanhan said he's a “long shot” to play on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints and could miss multiple weeks because of a toe injury. A softer schedule helps. The Saints (0-1) played the Cardinals close and their defense could cause problems for Purdy or Mac Jones — whichever QB starts. The Niners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. New Orleans.

49ERS: 23-16

Jacksonville at Cincinnati

Line: Bengals minus 3 1/2

The Bengals (1-0) are seeking their first 2-0 start with Joe Burrow after barely beating the Browns. They must play better against the Jaguars (1-0). Liam Coen has Jacksonville heading in the right direction. The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games, but they have lost 11 of their last 12 road games straight up.

BENGALS: 26-20

Seattle at Pittsburgh

Line: Steelers minus 3

The Seahawks (0-1) face old friend DK Metcalf for the first time. Aaron Rodgers had a much better debut with the Steelers (1-0) than Sam Darnold did in Seattle. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Something has to give.

STEELERS: 24-20

Cleveland at Baltimore

Line: Ravens minus 11 1/2

Baltimore’s defense wasted another stellar performance by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who also had a critical fumble against Buffalo. The Ravens (0-1) don’t want to start 0-2 again this season. Joe Flacco faces the team he led to a Super Bowl victory 13 years ago after the Browns (0-1) almost upset the Bengals. Cleveland is going to be better than expected. The Browns covered the spread in four of the last six meetings.

RAVENS: 26-19

Buffalo at New York Jets

Line: Bills minus 6 1/2

Josh Allen and the Bills (1-0) already are on their way to another AFC East title following a spectacular offensive display against the Ravens. Their defense needs to tighten up. Justin Fields gave the Jets (0-1) reason for optimism. The Bills are 8-2 straight up in their last 10 games vs. the Jets. New York is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games.

BILLS: 27-17

Chicago at Detroit

Line: Lions minus 6

Ben Johnson returns to Detroit after the Bears (0-1) blew a fourth-quarter lead to spoil his head coaching debut. The Lions (0-1) missed their former offensive coordinator in a subpar opener. Their next loss matches their entire total from last season. Chicago has lost 11 of its last 12 games. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

LIONS: 29-20

New England at Miami

Line: Dolphins minus 1 1/2

The Patriots (0-1) fell short in Mike Vrabel’s debut. Drake Maye had a costly pick against the Raiders but gets a chance to face a defense that was porous last week. The Dolphins (0-1) didn’t show in their opener, giving up scores on all seven possessions by Indianapolis. Miami is 9-0 ATS in the last nine games vs. New England.

PATRIOTS: 23-22

Carolina at Arizona

Line: Cardinals minus 6 1/2

An ugly opener for the Panthers (0-1) was reminiscent of the first half of 2024. Bryce Young bounced back last season and needs to do it again. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals (1-0) have a chance for a fast start. Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.

CARDINALS: 24-21

Denver at Indianapolis

Line: Broncos minus 2

Bo Nix needs to protect the ball better this week after three turnovers nearly cost the Broncos (1-0) against Tennessee. Denver’s stout defense should give Daniel Jones and the Colts (1-0) a tougher challenge than Miami did. The Broncos are 12-7 ATS with Nix.

BRONCOS: 23-18

Philadelphia at Kansas City

Line: Eagles minus 1

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (0-1) look to avoid their first 0-2 start since 2014 in a Super Bowl rematch against the team that dominated them to ruin their three-peat hopes. Kansas City’s defense has to play better this week against the Eagles (1-0) after getting carved up by Justin Herbert. Philadelphia has more talent and depth than the injury-riddled Chiefs. But Mahomes has never lost three straight games.

CHIEFS: 26-24

Tampa Bay at Houston

Line: Texans minus 2 1/2

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (1-0) are coming off an impressive-but-ugly comeback win on the road. Now, they have an even tougher challenge against a team that’s looking to avoid a 0-2 start. Tampa Bay’s defense needs to generate more pressure. Stroud and Houston’s offense had a difficult time against the Rams. The Texans have won five in a row in the series after losing their first matchup in 2003.

TEXANS: 27-20

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Last week:

Overall: Straight up: 13-3. Against spread: 8-8.

Prime-time: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 2-2.

Best Bet: Straight up: 1-0. Against spread: 0-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 1-0. Against spread: 1-0.

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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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