Buffalo, NY (WBEN) Pollsters say expect a flurry of polls in the race for the White House over the next couple of months. They say look for several things to ensure those polls are credible.
Pollster Barry Zeplowitz says expect numerous polls in the battle between President Biden and Donald Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if you looked at the different websites that have polls that you might find eight to 10 new polls in even the next week or so," says Zeplowitz.
Zeplowitz says you have to look at the sample size, saying if less than 1,000 people were polled, it's not particularly credible. "And if you're not interviewing likely voters versus just registered voters, it loses credibility," adds Zeplowitz.
Siena's Don Levy agrees there will be a flurry of polls over the next couple of months, particularly after the respective parties' conventions. "I think there's going to be some polls, as some have already done, begin to shop, other potential democratic replacements for Biden," predicts Levy before things quiet down before the convention. Following that Levy expects to start looking at polls that are going to really focus on some of the pivotal groups of voters. Those voters in the battleground states, Latino voters, Black voters, young voters, all constituencies that are, you could say, in play that we have seen movement within," says Levy.
Levy says look at the favorability and job approval rating of Biden. "If we continue to see erosion there, that's going to be a really bad sign for Joe Biden," notes Levy. He also expects questions surrounding some of the key issues, the economy, abortion, and the state of our democracy.
When it comes to credibility, Levy says look to see who conducted the poll. "How transparent are they a good poll was one that will publish every single question they asked and the order in which they asked it and allow the public to look at all the results," says Levy. He also suggests going to some of the polling aggregators to look at an average of all the polls.
