How long before gas prices drop below $4/gallon?

Buffalo, NY (WBEN) With the US and Iran striking a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz, it its possible gas prices could continue its descent, but one expert says there's a big if on the table.

"If this deal happens, gas prices could continue to fall, but obviously there's been a lot of issues back and forth getting a deal done, the real details now are whether or not this deal will be realized, whether or not ships will actually start transiting the strait, and that is still up in air on whether or not we see that," says Patrick DeHaan of GasBuddy. He says gas prices may continue trending lower if this deal pans out, but if it falls apart, "we'll be right back where we started with potentially even higher gas prices in the weeks ahead."

DeHaan says it's still too early to determine when we could see gas prices drop to less than $4 a gallon. "We haven't seen a ship moving yet through the Strait in a significant way, or we haven't seen several ships, so it's still too early to be able to tell exactly how quick relief could come," explains DeHaan." It depends on the degree of what happens, how quickly the straitt opens, how quickly boats start moving, how quickly countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq can get their oil output ramped back up. All of this will take time, and we have really no historical precedent to know how long this could take." He says if this deal sticks, that trajectory of lower gas prices can continue to the point in a matter of maybe a month or two, gas prices in Buffalo could fall back below that $4 gallon mark.

He says there's another factor closer to home. "We still have complicating factors like hurricane season, which will be really entering its peak in about four weeks, so still uncertainty, plenty of it up and down. It's really too early to definitively tell exactly when we may see prices falling back below $4 If everything goes most optimally, we could see it at some point in July or August. If we get hurricanes, or if we see an escalation between us and Iran, well, then we could be back off to the races, and still talking about the potential of $5 a gallon gasoline," warns DeHaan.

Gas prices in Buffalo are $4.40 a gallon.