Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Erie County and Western New York are preparing for the first major snow event of the new winter season, and it could be the biggest storm the region has seen since the historic "Snowvember" storm nearly eight years ago to the day.
As of Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for all of Western New York, with the advisory in effect for Northern Erie and Genesee Counties from Thursday evening through Sunday afternoon.
Forecasts are calling for heavy lake effect snow, with total snow accumulations of 2-3 feet in the most persistent lake snow bands. The heaviest snow is expected late Thursday night through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed two inches per-hour. Snowfall totals of up to four feet will be possible if the main snow band is slower to push north late Friday night.
In addition, winds could end up gusting as high as 35 miles-per-hour.
"This will be a significant snowfall," said Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz during a press briefing at the Erie County Highway Department on Tuesday. "One foot of snow, we can handle that with no problem. Two feet, we can handle that. When you start getting above two feet, then you're looking at significant issues and delays that can happen with regards to the removal of snow in our communities."
To combat the expected snowfall, Erie County has 37 plows ready to go to battle the winter conditions once this storm takes hold of the area. Preparations for the change of seasons has been ongoing for weeks now at the county level, with crews starting to winterize their equipment in October.
"We anticipate usually the first snowfall, the last week of October, but our crews do a great job, the men and women of the department getting all the equipment ready and being storm ready," said Commissioner for the Erie County Department of Public Works, Bill Geary. "We do anticipate as it gets closer to the storm, things will get a little more solidified into what areas will be impacted. This particular one, it seems the city, North, which is a little more densely populated and typically gets out of most of the snow. It's outside the traditional snow belt, but we're preparing for that and the traffic impacts that will pose with."
On top of the necessary equipment on-hand for the winter season in Erie County, Geary says the Public Works Department has more than 70 staff workers ready to drive the plows, and additional resources to be able to tap into at a moment's notice.
With this storm bearing down on the region come later in the week, Geary is very confident in his department based on past performances from his crew.
"The men and women that are out there behind the pause making that happen for 12-hour shifts, they're the ones that get us through this every time. I've got all the confidence in the world in them," Geary said.
With the changes in forecasting over the years, it has been a huge upgrade for crews in their fight against snowy conditions on the roadways before, during and even after the storm. With trustworthy forecasts and other enhancements in snow fighting technology, it has allowed them to be on top of their game time-and-time again.
"We have weather overlays on tablets that are in the vehicles, we can look and see if we have to strategically move some pieces of equipment within a district. Most these five districts are gigantic, they have eight towns and villages, usually, in each district, but we can see that coming, we can see what the winds are doing," Geary explained.
While forecasts are one reliable source of information for drivers and other leaders managing the Western New York roadways, social media has also become an entrusted source of information for entities like the Department of Public Works.
"With all the fancy technology that we have, listening to where people are and what's happening from them through Twitter or even Facebook and their comments and what's happening with the intensity of the snow, it gives us real time information," Geary said.
So what concerns lie ahead for Geary and his staff when it comes to the first severe winter event to the scale of the 2014 "Snowvember" storm? One of the first concerns for him is issues with tractor trailers, specifically empty tractor trailers.
"We'll be working with the Thruway Authority, [Department of Transportation] will be on some calls as it gets closer to the event so those messages will be put out on the overhead signs," Geary said. "It's just people come and transiting maybe through the area that aren't accustomed to driving in this."
When reflecting on the 2014 "Snowvember" storm in Western New York, it can certainly be considered "a storm of a lifetime" with the amount of snow that fell within a 10-mile span over the course of a few days. For Geary, he says he didn't make it home from the non-stop work that needed to be done for about four days.
As for what Geary took away from the experience of nearly eight years ago, he says it was making sure to always be prepared for the unexpected.
"We weren't caught flat-footed, fortunately, we had enough salt and stuff on-hand. But at that time, too, that intensity of snowfall, trucks couldn't get down roadways," Geary explained. "Our best advocate and our best tool wasn't always snow plows, sometimes it was high lift snow blowers. We've prepared from that, we've retooled the fleet to make sure we have plenty of resources to do that. We always make sure all our fuel farms - we have 26 fueling stations throughout the county - are more than three-quarters full, just in the event if it's not even us that needs the resources but other municipalities or other agencies, we'd be able to assist. So again, it just goes back on preparedness."
While county services like the Department of Public Works are ready for the upcoming season, so, too, are other services like the Department of Emergency Services, led by Commissioner Dan Neaverth.
"My staff has all of our resources ready to roll," said Neaverth on Tuesday. "We do a quick little survey with our staff just to make sure that we've got the folks ready and available, no vacations, etc. We have a pretty solid handle on that."
Neaverth and his crew are set to have their usual communication with elected officials on Wednesday ahead of the storm, and the more the hours start to dwindle until the weather makes its impact, the more they can tighten down a gameplan for what's to come.
"We'll make a decision then whether we do a limited activation of the Emergency Operation Center, or whether or not we have a full activation," Neaverth explained. "Those are decisions that are pretty much made based on the latest information we get from the weather service, and of course, the county exec., if he wants to have that that raised level, we assist him with that, too."
When it comes to major concerns for Neaverth and his crew at the Department of Emergency Services, he worries most about a lack of common sense from local residents during significant weather events like a snowstorm.
"People know that heavy snow is coming. If you don't have to be out, you shouldn't be out," Neaverth said. "It's the insidious nature of lake effect snow where it could be sunny where we're standing right now and 15 minutes from now, I can't see you standing two feet away from me. So people need to just have that situational awareness."
According the Neaverth, what assists his department the most with emergency responses is if vehicles are not left abandoned in the middle of the roadways during significant storms. If plows can't get out and clear the snow from the roads, they can't do their job efficiently and help residents in need.
"Snow is not something that we're not familiar with here. Other areas, maybe it's a catastrophic event if you get half a foot of snow. Here, we know how to deal with it, as long as we can deal with it," Neaverth said. "If the weather turns severe in your particular area, you understand maybe it's fun to just go out and play in the snow, but you shouldn't be out driving around in it. That's our Achilles heel. People that are out on the roads that aren't supposed to be and clogging up the roads so that we can't get the plows through."
As for the lessons learned from the 2014 "Snowvember" storm, Neaverth believes there's going to be a lot more proactive responses from different levels of government this time around.
"You'll notice whether you're on the 219, the 400, the 90 the 190, we've got those gates now, those were only on certain highways. So it might be sunny out, but if we anticipate that maybe the snow is going to shift into a particular direction, three inches to four inches per-hour, they might shut that highway down even though the sun's still out just to be in front of it, to try and be proactive."
Neaverth says it will be the relationships with the state that are important, because the county is not allowed to shut down the thruway or any of the interstates in the area without the proper communication with them, and then working with the towns that are impacted.
"Some of the other problems we run into is if you're up on the 219 and we tell you to get off at Milestrip [Road], now we're dumping traffic during a snowstorm into Orchard Park or West Seneca or other areas, so we need to let them know," he said. "We need to make sure that we're taking you off of a road and putting you onto a road that's already plowed, and then how do you take care of that? So I think the things we've learned is maybe to be a little bit more proactive. We have better resources as a result of that, and we fine tune the plan so that we have a better-working relationship with a lot of the community."
