Ogorek predicts using trading sites are a losing bet

Buffalo, NY (WBEN) If you've thought about using prediction market sites like Kalshi or Polymarket, one financial adviser says think again.

"Nobody makes money on these things except the bots," says Tony Ogorek of Ogorek Wealth Management. He cites a recent study that showed of 2.5 million active wallet addresses, 84% lost money, and about half of all the active wallet end up losing less than 10 bucks, but over 100,000 accounts have lost, $1,000 or more. ". For people who make money, they typically make just a few bucks, but the interesting thing is elite here, which is about the top 1% and they capture about 80% of all the gains, and then if you go to a tenth of a percent of that, those are the ones that are really pulling the money in, because the mechanical systems rather than other people who are betting," says Ogorek.

Ogorek says there's one very important thing to know when you go on these sites. "I think people have to understand that they are not betting against other people, they're betting against bots, and specifically you got high frequency algorithmic trading systems, market making scripts, arbitrage bots, all these things are firing off while you enter your bets in manually," explains Ogorek. He says with the sports betting sites, you have people who are setting the odds that you are betting against. "My concern with the sports betting is there are always people that are going to be financially vulnerable, and we just saw this past week, I think one or two of the NBA players, you know, we're shaving some statistics, just so they could settle some debts, so, bottom line is, you've got the first wave of bookmakers, and then you've got the players, and you are going to have some that are vulnerable and are going to be approached to sort of fix things, and you know, I just think you're at a disadvantage," he notes.. He says there's one other thing. "You're betting against things which are unknowable. If you buy a stock, you can take a look at whether it has earnings or not, what their sales are, etc. but, in terms of who's going to throw three curve balls in this inning, or whatever the case is, these are just unknowable things," says Ogorek.

Ogorek's advice? " I think the best advice, first, is to view it as entertainment, not as a way to make any money. Second, I think you have to come in with a fixed dollar amount that you're going to bet. Let's say it's $100 and you lay your bets in the event you lose it, you're done, you're not going to be ATM for more money. Third, in the event that you are up, let's say you know you bet 100 and you're at 120 Well, guess what? You just need a 20% return on your money a very short period of time. You're not going to get the average in the stock market is 10% a year. So, you double that, count your blessings and maybe take your gains and say I had a great day, but you do have to put limits on this."