BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) – Expect the Buffalo mayoral race to get heated these last couple of months.
"Most campaigns do (get heated) in the home stretch which begins after Labor Day and continues to peak right throughout the full up to Election Day," political strategist Carl Calabrese said. "I think this one's going to get very hot. I think these two candidates probably don't like each other very much. You're going to see the gloves come off early and often."
Calabrese expects there to be a series of negative ads, both on television and on the radio. There will also be negative mailings and accusations of each other, some with a basis in reality and others totally outlandish.
"That's kind of the state of campaigning these days at all levels of government," Calabrese added.
India Walton is the democratic nominee for mayor in Buffalo after she defeated the four-term incumbent Mayor Byron Brown in the June primary. Turnout for that election was low. Days after the primary, Brown began a write-in campaign with the hope he can energize his longtime base to come out in the November election.
Brown's campaign also received a jolt after the Friday decision by a federal judge to give him an independent line on the November ballot. That
"He's got to make sure that his voters know he is serious about being the mayor again and that he's going to work very hard," Calabrese said. "He needs to instill in them how important it is to vote."
(Reporter's Note: The above interview with Calabrese was conducted prior to news that Brown would be on the ballot in November)
Calabrese said Walton was effective at establishing her constituency ahead of the primary but now needs to expand.
"If her and her campaign have not been in hyperdrive since the day after the primary election in registering new voters, identifying her base, and registering those people, it's been a waste of a summer," Calabrese said. "She needs to continue to motivate her base and expand on it if she hopes to beat Byron Brown in November."
Who has the advantage? Walton has a natural advantage because she is the democratic candidate in a blue city. However, a recent poll by WIVB-TV found Walton trailing Brown by 10 points in the November election.
Calabrese said, though, that it will be a game-changer if Brown will be allowed on the ballot.
"This type of decision could have a major impact on an election in a major city," Calabrese said.
In our interviews with the two leading candidates for mayor last month, Walton said her stance on policing is different than Mayor Brown's in that she is focused on the community-based solutions like putting more lights in the streets.
"We have lots of surveillance in this city but the cameras are not even on," she said. "We've had this inflated police budget and crime is not going down. We have to explore other solutions and other viable options.
That's what my public safety platform centers around."
She said the focus on solving issues like crime in the city is to focus on the root causes such as poverty.
"If we are not creating opportunities for folks to have a good living wage, jobs, hope for the future, an environment in which they can be proud, after school programming…those are the things that are really going to help solidify the foundation to address the root cause of violent crime," Walton said.
Brown told WBEN the COVID-19 pandemic has made policing more challenging in Buffalo.
"I think that is a contributing factor to the increase in violent crime and gun violence not only here in Buffalo but across the country," Brown said. "Most of the City of Buffalo's community policing strategies were suspended because of the pandemic and in our efforts to keep the community safe and our officers safe, we had to approach policing in a different way."
Now that there is some relief from the pandemic, Brown said crime numbers have begun to move in the opposite direction.
Walton claimed policing in Buffalo is focused on militarization instead of community based. Brown said the city's focus is community-policing and that every officer is a trained community officer.
No doubt, the candidates will discuss public safety during their first and only debate that is scheduled this Thursday. Calabrese said the mayor needs to show some passion and emotion during the debate while Walton has to accurately paint a better vision for the future of the city.
