Buffalo, NY (WBEN) Although local political analysts say it's in still the preliminary stage, it could be a long battle as an independent commission charged with redistricting New York's congressional lines weighs conflicting proposals.
Ken Kruly of Politics and Stuff says while it's preliminary, you're seeing where each party is coming from.
"Both sides will try to take advantage the best way possible, but the Democrats are in control with supermajorities in the Assembly and Senate, and a Democratic governor. At the end of the day, I'd expect what their plan will be, whether there will be further tweaking, will be the one," says Kruly.
Kruly says redistricting requires each district being close to the state average, but there are also demographics and geography to deal with. "If you look at the maps, they're sort of stretched from here to the middle of the state, which is not conducive to constituent activity for a congressman," notes Kruly.
What could redistricting mean for WNY? "They're starting out because Tom Reed was retiring so they started chopping up," says Kruly, who expects the region to lose some representation.
"The Democratic map has a very compact district that seems to be mainly northern Erie County and Buffalo, where Brian Higgins is representing. Another has Niagara County and other counties that is probably more suited to Chris Jacobs."
Republican strategist Carl Calabrese says he doesn't want to draw too many conclusions because this is the first iteration of the maps. But he says don't surprised if there's a legal challenge down the road. "I wouldn't be surprised to see Republicans going to court," says Calabrese. "I suspect the Democrats' goal is to bring the number of Republican districts to 1."
There are 8 Republicans in congress right now, and how lines are drawn to achieve that could be part of a court fight.
Calabrese also notes the region could be affected by redistricting. "The process has been made easier by the fact Tom Reed is retiring and that district is going to disappear as we know it," says Calabrese. "There's talk of putting Chris Jacobs into the same district with Brian Higgins and letting that battle ensue."
Both say redistricting also has national consequences. "Democrats have a very small majority in the House. They need states like New York to hang on to that majority," says Calabrese.
"Republican legislatures and governors will control redistricting of 187 seats nationwide. Democrats control 75, so the estimates are the Republicans could gain enough seats through redistricting controlled by Republicans."
Kruly agrees. "This has to be taken into context nationally, where Texas and Florida are controlled by Republicans, they'll be drawing districts to make it difficult for Democrats to win. This is a national thing going on as far as how control of the House will fall out," says Kruly.
But Calabrese notes it's only the first minutes of the first quarter, and the two minute warning of the final quarter is far off.
