BUFFALO, N.Y. (WBEN) - Health experts continue to hope that proper precautions will mitigate the spread of coronavirus.
"What happens very much depends on our behavior," Dr. Peter Winkelstein, Executive Director for the Institute for Healthcare Informatics at Jacobs School of Medicine, told WBEN. "When we look at our models, it's very clear that there is a sudden increase in the transmission of the virus probably around the middle of October or towards the end of October. That's what has led to this big spike in the number of cases of people who are in the hospital. That happened, apparently as the models seem to say, very suddenly in the end of October."
Winkelstein said he believes that there are more cases due, in part, to the more people who are spending time indoors. While he said it's no one's fault that more people are indoors, our responsibility is to respond appropriately by following the proper precautions.
The latest modeling shows the impact that further restrictions will have.
"If we go back into a full lockdown, like we did in April, which is, of course, very difficult on everybody...the model shows it will work again," Winkelstein said. "If we go to a full lockdown, we can put a lid on the spike and keep it from getting it out of control. Nobody really wants to have to go to a full lockdown but that tool is available to us if we need it."
Winkelstein said other lockdown measures could work. Most of Erie County went into an orange zone in the middle of November. Winkelstein said we won't learn about the impact of the restrictions until this week or next.
The University at Buffalo updates their models each week and share it with health officials to help them make decisions related to the pandemic.
"We're going to have to tough out this winter," Winkelstein said. "It's going to be hard to do. I think the Christmas shopping, Christmas time and holiday time...we're going to have to be cautious in the same way we're being cautious about Thanksgiving. This is going to be a hard holiday season...but if we can tough this winter out, I think we have light at the end of the tunnel. I think this wave is our last wave. It's the worst wave, for sure, but it's the last wave. I think by the time we get through this winter and into spring, we'll be in much better shape."
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