Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise is in the running to become the next Speaker of the House. Scalise (R-Metairie) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have both announced that they will seek the seat now that House members, led by far-right members of the Republican Party, ousted Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-California) from the speakership.
What are the chances that the Jefferson Parish Republican claims the third-highest seat in American government?
"I think it's a little unclear," said LSU political science professor Robert Hogan. "I think most Republicans in the House don't have a good sense of what's going on. I think it's going to take many days for this to work itself out."
Hogan told WWL's Dave Cohen that it'll take several rounds of negotiations before anyone emerges as a clear contender for the speakership. Hogan says the ultra-conservative wing of the House Republican Caucus could make or break Scalise's chances to become speaker.
"The MAGA Republicans--those that are in favor of Donald Trump--have, I would say, a pretty good hand in this and are going to be pivitol in who has a role here," Hogan said. "It may not be the person they most want, but it's not going to be someone who's objectionable to them. So the key question is: Does Steve Scalise have the ability to appease that wing of the party right now?"
Can the Scalise win the speakership without getting any votes from Democrats? Hogan says that's his only path to victory.
"You would not be able to get those Democratic votes without a high cost," Hogan said.
Hogan noted that if Scalise were to court Democratic support, he would have to promise members of that party seats and chairmanships on high-powered Congressional committees. In fact, Hogan says those are the types of concessions that led to McCarthy's ouster.
However, Hogan says if Scalise wins the speakership, he will need the help of moderate Republicans to reign in their far-right colleagues and the help of Democrats to get legislation passed.
"Whoever is successful is going to have to say to the moderate Republicans, look, the MAGA people aren't going to be with us," Hogan said. "We're going to have to get votes in terms of policies that we pass from some Democrats."