A new report from the United Nations reveals that human-induced climate change is permanently drying up land across the globe.
The study by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification claims that more than 75% of Earth's land is permanently drier than it was in 1970. It's an alarming trend that has turned once-fertile land into deserts, with little to no hope of returning to their previous state.
The report highlights human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift, with regions like Europe, the western United States, Brazil, and central Africa being particularly hard-hit by aridity.
One UN official said the change "is redefining life on Earth."
"For the first time, the aridity crisis has been documented with scientific clarity, revealing an existential threat affecting billions around the globe," Ibrahim Thiaw, UNCCD Executive Secretary, said in a statement.
"Unlike droughts -- temporary periods of low rainfall -- aridity represents a permanent, unrelenting transformation," Thiaw added. "Droughts end. When an area's climate becomes drier, however, the ability to return to previous conditions is lost. The drier climates now affecting vast lands across the globe will not return to how they were and this change is redefining life on Earth."
According to the study, some 77.6% of Earth's land experienced drier conditions during the three decades leading up to 2020 compared to the previous 30-year period.
Despite major floods and storms, the global landmass classified as drylands has increased to 40.6%, according to the report. In recent decades, some 7.6% of global lands --– an area larger than Canada -- were pushed across aridity thresholds, from non-drylands to drylands or from less arid dryland classes to more arid classes. Most of these areas have transitioned from humid landscapes to drylands, with dire implications for agriculture, ecosystems, and the people living there.
And the research warns that, if the world fails to curb greenhouse gas emissions, another 3% of the world's humid areas will become drylands by the end of this century. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.
Areas particularly hard-hit by the drying trend include almost all of Europe (95.9% of its land), parts of the western United States, Brazil, parts of Asia (notably eastern Asia), and central Africa. In the U.S., significant drying trends have led to water scarcity and wildfires becoming perennial hazards.
The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.
For the 2.3 billion people -- well over 25% of the world's population -- living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Forced migration is one of aridity's most visible consequences. As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide.
As the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century's end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.
The report also warns that one fifth of all land could experience abrupt ecosystem transformations from rising aridity by the end of the century, causing dramatic shifts (such as forests becoming grasslands and other changes) and leading to extinctions among many of the world's plants, animals and other life.
"Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline. Yet, by embracing innovative solutions and fostering global solidarity, humanity can rise to meet this challenge," Nichole Barger, chair of the UNCCD Science-Policy Interface, said in a statement. "The question is not whether we have the tools to respond -- it is whether we have the will to act."