NEW YORK (1010 WINS/WCBS 880) — Despite the state being a long-considered Democratic stronghold, President Joe Biden’s dwindling support in the weeks following the first presidential debate of 2024 may catalyze a competitive election in New York.
For now, many top elected officials have stopped short of urging the incumbent president to step down from the presidential race, but growing criticism of the Biden campaign has quickened calls for the DNC to take action in the Empire State, citing several swing district races that could determine control of the House.
A report by Politico cited two private polls—reviewed by the news organization—that were conducted in September and March in a swing New York House district, which found former President Trump leading Biden by 1 point. The most recent polling data from Five Thirty-Eight puts Biden ahead by 9 points in the state, a close lead considering his 23-point win over Trump in 2020.
“We're also seeing some polling pre-dating the debate performance for President Biden, where back in February, according to Sienna College, he was at 12 points, and then he has lost ground against former President Trump for several months now, and now he’s down to 8 points,” Politico New York reporter Nick Reisman said on WCBS 880’s On The Record with Steve Scott.
Reisman, who authored the Politico report, said that while this lead might seem like a significant cushion and Trump winning New York a bit of a stretch, it is a sign of trouble for Democrats—especially for down-ballot candidates—in a state where blue voters outnumber Republicans two to one.
Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine told Politico that the reality of a purple New York is growing.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Levine said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
The tides have been turning for a while, argues Reisman, who acknowledged Republican gains on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley—some of which have helped the GOP keep control of the House—and the 6-point win of Gov. Kathy Hochul over former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin in the 2022 gubernatorial race.
“You are seeing a number of Democrats who are kind of quietly raising some concerns about just how far Democrats can continue their statewide winning streak,” Reisman said. “They now control literally every lever of power in state government in Albany as well as at the federal level as well, but again, Republicans have been making those gains.”
He pointed to a crack between the more moderate and progressive factions among state Democrats, with tension in the party regarding perceived overreach on controversial legislation, like bail reform.
Many in the state have stayed true to Biden amid post-debate concern about the 81-year-old’s mental acuity and ability to win come November, including prominent Democrats like Hochul, Mayor Eric Adams and Sen. Chuck Schumer, but calls for his withdrawal from the race have been mounting.
Rep. Pat Ryan, a moderate Democrat representing the state’s 18th Congressional District, became the eighth member of Congress to call on Biden to step aside, marking him an “existential threat” to American democracy.
“I’d be doing a grave disservice if I said he was the best candidate to serve this fall,” Ryan said in a telephone interview with the New York Times. “For the good of our country, for my two young kids, I’m asking Joe Biden to step aside in the upcoming election and deliver on the promise to be a bridge to a new generation of leaders.”
Lieutenant Gov. Antonio Delgado joined in the calls for new Democratic leadership on Wednesday by publicly urging Biden to “add to his legacy, showing his strength and grace, by ending his campaign and making room for a new leader.”
Stating his concern about Biden’s ability to defeat Trump, Delgado wrote that he believes “we should move forward with a nominee capable of re-invigorating and re-energizing Americans who are determined to protect our democracy, and who want to do so with a candidate they believe can win.”
With Biden at the top of the ticket, Reisman says, Democrats across the country might be in for major losses.
“There is a concern among Democrats, not just those in battleground seats but really across the country at this point, that President Biden will not be a strong top of the ticket who they need to turn out the vote for them,” he said.