Can Cousins get a signature playoff win against tough Saints? Keys to a Vikings wild card victory
My favorite memories from my NFL management career are playoff runs that resulted in two Super Bowl appearances, with the Vikings in 1977 and the Titans in 1999. But an unlikely playoff sequence in 1987 also ranks high among my career highlights. That was the year we won road playoff games at New Orleans and San Francisco before losing a close NFC title game in Washington.
Coincidentally, winning against the Saints and No. 1 seeded 49ers on the road is the path this year’s Vikings must take in order to return to the NFC title game so perhaps it’s a good omen.
For fans and media, there’s plenty of talk about Sunday’s wild card playoff between the Vikings and Saints being a rematch of the memorable Minneapolis Miracle win for Minnesota in the 2017 divisional playoff.
Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer isn’t buying into that story line. “We’re concentrating on the Saints this week, an excellent team,” he said. “We don’t care about three years ago or whatever it was.”
For Kirk Cousins who was a Redskin at the time, this week’s game is simply the biggest game of his career and it would be his signature win thus far if he can help make it happen.
Back in mini-camp last June, Cousins assessed his NFL resume and foreshadowed the upcoming NFL playoffs when he said, “I think the next level is all about winning. I’m pretty much a .500 quarterback in my career so far and that’s not why you’re brought in or people are excited about you. If I don’t play well, if I don’t have gaudy statistics but we win multiple playoff games, the narrative will be I went to the next level. That’s the life of a quarterback.”
As Cousins and the Vikings prepare to face the Saints on Sunday, the opportunity is there for Cousins to make his first move in the direction of which he speaks. It certainly won’t be easy as New Orleans at 13-3 arguably is the best team playing on wild card weekend.
Cousins has at least overcome the .500 QB label this season as the Vikings are 10-5 on his watch since he and most of the starters sat out last week’s loss to the Bears. Cousins started the season slow, heated up in a 10 game stretch in which he rose to among the league leaders in passer rating efficiency but is coming off a down game against Green Bay.
He says he plays best with a chip on his shoulder when he’s doubted and he likely feels that way after his shaky Packer game. There’s a lot at stake for Cousins this week---first and foremost gaining his first playoff win and then there’s a potential contract extension that could be forthcoming before the 2020 season if he plays well in what would be a huge victory.
With Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison returning to the lineup, Cousins will have his full complement of weapons for the first time since Adam Thielen injured his hamstring in Week 7 at Detroit. That’s good news for a Vikings offense that will need to have a great game to beat the Saints as their offense led by future Hall of Famer Drew Brees will be difficult for the Minnesota D to contain.
Here are my nine keys to what would be a thrilling win in New Orleans to hopefully launch a run to Super Bowl LIV in Miami:
1.Kirk play a great game and grab that signature win: Against a Saints team that’s talented on both sides of the ball, I don’t think it’s possible for the Vikings to win without an excellent game from their QB. He’ll need support from the run game to set up play action passes from the perimeter where he’s at his best. And the offensive line has to play well as they did most of the season but fell off against Green Bay with five sacks allowed. The Saints ranked third with 51 sacks so an effective run and screen game can help slow down the pass rush.
Two turnovers were costly in the Saints win over the Vikings last season so Cousins needs to protect the ball and be on the lookout for Saints Pro Bowl defensive end Cameron Jordan who has 15.5 sacks (and Cam’s dad Steve was a Pro Bowl tight end on our 1987 Vikings team). It helps the Vikings that two starters on New Orleans’ defensive line—Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins—are out with injuries.
Cousins threw for 359 yards and 2 TDs last year against the Saints so he should be confident that the passing game can be effective this Sunday. And if the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo can throw for 349 yards and 4 TDs in a 48-46 win in New Orleans on December 8, perhaps Cousins can have a similar performance against the NFL’s No. 20 pass defense.
2. Cook have a productive day with no fumbles: A huge matchup is Minnesota’s No. 6 rushing offense against New Orleans’ No. 4 rushing D. It’s obviously great news for the Vikings to have their Pro Bowl running back returning after a two-game injury absence. Cook says he “feels great, refreshed, locked in and ready to go.”
Cook needs to be at his best running and also finding success in the screen game where he’s been so effective with his quickness and speed. It also will help to have No. 2 back Alexander Mattison returning from his ankle sprain as the Vikings run game was at its best when Cook and Mattison were rolling. Both backs need to hang onto the ball against a Saints defense that had 10 fumble recoveries.
3. Get all the receivers in the mix: Minneapolis Miracle hero Stefon Diggs has had great games in the past two meetings between the teams—6 catches for 137 yards, 1 TD in the 2017 playoff and 10 receptions for 119 yards, 1 TD in the Saints’ 30-20 victory in October of 2018. He’s sure to attract plenty of attention which could open things up for Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, New Orleans-native Irv Smith Jr. and Bisi Johnson. Thielen also had a 100 yard receiving day in last year’s Saints game and needs to be targeted early now that he’s fully healthy. I see him as a difference maker if Diggs attracts more double coverage.
4. Win time of possession and keep Brees and Company off the field as much as possible: A balanced, ball control offense is a key to victory as the fewer possessions the better for the explosive Saints offense.
5. Stop the run and pressure Brees who is tough to sack: The Vikings defense did a great job in limiting Brees to 120 passing yards last time but they didn’t sack him due in large part to his quick release (and Brees has been sacked only 12 times this season). Minnesota also has done well in run defense against the Saints and that will be needed to set up passing situations. The Vikings will need to limit Saints running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray (a former Viking).
Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen will face two excellent tackles in Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead and the Vikings need their DE’s to put the heat on Brees along with Ifeadi Odenigbo (7 sacks) and Stephen Weatherly rushing from the inside. The Vikings defensive line depth could be a big factor against a Saints offense that puts so much pressure on the opposing D.
6. Double cover the prolific Michael Thomas: Taking a page out of Bill Belichick’s playbook where he doesn’t allow the opponent’s top playmaker to beat him, Mike Zimmer needs to double cover Thomas who set the NFL record with 149 receptions this season. It’s a big challenge for the Vikings secondary to contain Thomas but the Vikings have held him under 100 receiving yards in the last two meetings.
The Vikings corners also have be concerned with receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Trequan Smith (5 TDs). And along with helping on Thomas, Minnesota’s outstanding safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris must contain another big weapon for Brees in tight end Jared Cook who has 43 receptions for 705 yards and 9 TDs.
7. A healthy Eric Kendricks is needed to slow Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill: Kendricks, the Vikings leading tackler, has had a terrific year and was rated the NFL’s top linebacker this season by Pro Football Focus. He’s trying to come back from a quad injury and he’s so important to the defense’s ability to keep the dynamic Kamara (1,330 combined yards) under control as a rusher and receiver along with handling Hill who does everything for the Saints as a wildcat QB, a runner and receiver who caught six TD passes. Anthony Barr also needs to make an impact in this game as a pass rusher, run stopper and pass defender.
8. Have a good day on special teams: Deonte Harris is the NFC’s Pro Bowl return man this season and he’s dangerous on both punts and kickoffs. It’s important for Vikings kicker Dan Bailey to boot his kickoffs out of the end zone while Britton Colquitt’s punts are high to force fair catches. Bailey needs to stay hot after an excellent season on field goals (making 27 of 29). The Saints also have blocked two punts and Coach Sean Payton is known for trick plays on special teams such as fake punts.
9. Don’t fall behind early: The Vikings are best when they keep things close or jump out to a lead. They did have the big comeback win over the Broncos but the Saints are too good to spot them a big lead. And the Vikings can’t relax if they get ahead. In the 2017 playoff game, Minnesota led 17-0 at halftime before Brees rallied the Saints into the lead until the Case Keenum to Diggs miracle play.
The pick: If the Vikings were going to make it to this year’s Super Bowl, they most likely would’ve had to beat the Saints at some point so why not now? This is a game the Vikings are capable of winning if they play their best football, minimize mistakes and win the turnover battle.
I must confess I was pulling for Seahawks to beat the 49ers last Sunday night which would have sent the Vikings to Seattle against a banged-up team instead of facing the Saints who I think will be Super Bowl bound if they get past the Vikings.
Zimmer is playing the no respect card of being eight point underdogs—along with talking about an NFL playoff video that doesn’t mention the Vikings--to help motivate his team. But as Cousins says, a playoff game is enough motivation.
I see an exciting game with both offenses moving the ball in a high scoring affair. Brees completed a league-high 74.3% of his passes and will be hard to hold down. I just don’t see the Vikings scoring enough to beat the Saints who are averaging a league-high 36.3 points per game since Week 10. So unfortunately, I’m picking the Saints to prevail 33-30 but I’m hoping for some of that 1987 magic to help lead this Vikings team to an upset victory.
Around the NFL Observations:
1.For all the supposed experts dismissing the Patriots as third fiddle to Baltimore and Kansas City in the AFC playoffs, I say be careful before writing off Belichick, Tom Brady and a team that knows how to win in January and February. I think New England’s running game and defense along with some timely Brady throws will carry them past Tennessee on Saturday night in Foxboro and then the Pats will be on to Kansas City in the divisional playoff round for a rematch of last year’s AFC title game.
2. My other wild card weekend picks: Saturday early—Houston and Deshaun Watson at home over a good Buffalo team; Sunday late afternoon—after falling inches short in the last minute against the 49ers last Sunday, I like Russell Wilson to lead a late drive that wins it this time in Philly over an Eagles team that has lost too many top offensive players to injury.