Vikings head to L.A. with playoffs coming into focus; keys to beating a dangerous, underrated Chargers team
Having completed the season sweep of Detroit, the Vikings begin their stretch drive towards the playoffs with a matchup on Sunday in L.A. against the 5-8 Chargers.
Some may label this a trap game with huge divisional home games upcoming against the Packers and Bears. But Vikings players and coaches who study tape of the Chargers this week know they’re a team loaded with talent who has battled injuries, an inconsistent season from their Pro Bowl quarterback Philip Rivers and lots of close losses.
The Vikings also know that this dangerous Chargers team beat the Bears 17-16 in Chicago and soundly defeated Green Bay 26-11 in L.A. They’re coming off a 45-10 road thrashing of Jacksonville and will enter this game with confidence. All of their eight losses have been by seven points or less, four of them by three points or less. They were 12-4 last season and beat the Ravens in the wild card round before falling to the Patriots.
It's a game the Vikings need to win and they’re hoping Chicago beats Green Bay in which case the Vikings would win the NFC North if they’re victorious in their final three games to finish 12-4. A loss to the Chargers coupled with a Packers loss to the Bears also puts Minnesota in position to claim the division title by winning their last two games. But a Packers win coupled with the Rams beating the Cowboys on Sunday would make a Vikings win over the Chargers necessary or the Rams would jump ahead in the wild card race.
Coach Mike Zimmer and QB Kirk Cousins emphasized that the Chargers have their full attention. “They beat Chicago, they beat Green Bay,” Zimmer said. “When they don’t turn the ball over, they’re pretty hard to beat. They’ve been beat up a little bit physically but they’re really healthy now. We’re going to have to go out there and play well on the road to get a win.”
Cousins calls the Chargers a “very talented team” and understands the playoff implications in saying “This is a big one for us. It’s really a three-game season and I think we’re going to need every one of these games to put ourselves in the best position for January.”
Here are my seven keys to beating the Chargers:
1.Run the ball well: the matchup that appears to be in Minnesota’s favor is their No. 4 ranked rushing game led by a fully healthy Dalvin Cook against the Chargers No. 17 run defense. Cousins and the Vikings will need to have some success by air but the Chargers have the No. 4 pass defense so a strong running attack can lead to victory.
2. Beware of defensive ends Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and safety Derwin James: this trio of Pro Bowlers can wreck havoc on an offense. Bosa leads the Chargers with 10.5 sacks, Ingram is a force up front and James is a Harrison Smith type defender who lines up all over, blitzes and covers well. The Chargers will count on him to help control Cook in the running game and cover talented Minnesota tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr.
The Vikings offensive line needs to open holes for Cook and give Cousins time to throw. It’s a big challenge, especially for Vikings tackles Brian O’Neill (having an excellent season) and Riley Reiff. And Cousins must get rid of the ball and buy time with play action rollouts so he can throw downfield to Stefon Diggs and hopefully Adam Thielen.
3. Welcome Thielen back with some early targets to take the heat off Cook and Diggs: Barring a setback in practice, Thielen is expected to return this week which will certainly help the offense and give Cousins his full arsenal of weapons. Cousins should throw to Thielen early to get the Chargers’ attention which will help free up Diggs and Cook to make plays. Some timely screens to Cook should help slow down the Chargers pass rush.
4. Pressure Philip Rivers into mistakes: the 38-year old QB has thrown 15 interceptions this season—third most in the league--and his inconsistency has been a big part of the Chargers down season but he threw for 314 yards and 3 TDs in Jacksonville with no turnovers. The Vikings pass defense was better last week against a rookie QB in David Blough who threw two interceptions. A big reason was Danielle Hunter, the NFC Defensive Player of Week, who had three sacks making him at 25 years and 40 days old the youngest player to reach 50 sacks in league history. Hunter now has 12.5 sacks (fourth best in the NFL) and he leads the league in quarterback pressures. He’ll need to be a force in these last three games along with his fellow pass rushers.
5. Cover dual threat Austin Ekeler and star receiver Keenan Allen: Ex-Wisconsin Badger Melvin Gordon is the Chargers leading rusher with 523 yards after a slow start due to missing the first three weeks of the season due to a holdout. The Vikings must control his running and the secondary must focus on stopping Allen, a two-time Pro Bowl receiver who has 81 receptions for 947 yards and 5 TDs.
Ekeler is a talented dual threat back with 11 TDs this season (3 rushing, 8 receiving) and he’s coming off an outstanding game at Jacksonville with 101 yards rushing and 112 yards receiving. It will be a big challenge for Minnesota’s star linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr to contain Ekeler who is super quick. Tight end Hunter Henry also is a playmaker with 536 receiving yards who needs to be well covered.
6. Solid special teams: Dan Bailey had a perfect day kicking against Detroit including a 50 yard field goal and Mike Hughes had his best day as a punt returner with a 10.8 yard average. Minnesota’s special teams units need to keep up that improved level of play.
7. Travel well Vikings fans and make yourselves heard: the Chargers move into the new stadium they’ll share with the Rams next season and they have seen many opposing fan bases take over their temporary venue--30,000 ROKiT Field. Vikings fans have traveled well this season and made themselves heard in places such as Dallas so it would give the team a boost to have strong support in-house on Sunday (and it’s a good excuse to escape the frigid north for the nicer L.A. weather).
The pick: Vikings in a squeaker—This is a tough call but I’m going with the team that has more to play for late in the season and that’s the Vikings. I see Cook having a big game on the ground and on screens, Cousins making enough plays in the passing game and the tight ends benefiting from the attention paid to Cook, Diggs and Thielen.
The Chargers will move the ball mostly in the passing game with Rivers challenging the Vikings corners. But I expect a couple Chargers turnovers to help the Vikings escape with a 27-24 victory. Then it will be on to Packer week with a lot on the line on Monday night of Christmas week.
Around the NFL Observations:
1.49ers beat the Saints in Game of the Year (so far): What a terrific game it was in New Orleans where the 49ers beat the Saints 48-46 last Sunday to take over the top seed in the NFC after the Seahawks lost to the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo (4 TD passes) and Drew Brees (5 TD passes) had quite the duel and star 49ers tight end and former Iowa Hawkeye George Kittle made the play of the game with his 39 yard catch and run on 4th and 2 to set up the game-ending field goal.
2. Hot Rams and Bears: Two division winners from last season are getting hot as they attempt to dislodge the Vikings or Packers from the final NFC playoff spot. The Bears have won three straight as QB Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears defense are playing much better than earlier this season. From Minnesota’s perspective, the best scenario is for the Bears to beat the Packers this week and then get knocked off by the Chiefs in Week 16 at Soldier Field before the season finale at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Rams were impressive in whipping the Seahawks and handling Russell Wilson last week. They’ve won two straight and five of their last seven to climb back into the wild card race at 8-5. The Vikings would love to see the Cowboys beat the Rams in Big D on Sunday and then the Rams are at San Francisco in Week 16 before closing with Arizona.
Cool stat on the Rams: Todd Gurley, Tyler Higbee and Robert Woods just became the first teammate trio with 100-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive games since the Vikings’ Cris Carter, Randy Moss and Robert Smith did it in 2000.
3. Le’Veon Bell: He’s looking like a free agent bust with the Jets. He should have stayed in Pittsburgh where he averaged 142 yards rushing and receiving per game in 2016 and 2017 before his ridiculous season-long holdout in 2018. He went for the money and not the team with the system that fit him best when he signed with the Jets for $13 million per year and he’s averaging 83 yards per game—a 42% drop in production-- and 3.2 yards per carry compared to 4.4 yards per carry those last two years in Steeltown.
The Jets can’t trade Bell due to the perception that he’s overpaid, underproductive and an injury risk. They can’t cut him until 2021 or get hit with a $17 million dead money hit to their salary cap. Jets Coach Adam Gase reportedly didn’t want Bell signed as he’s not a great fit for his system. This is a marriage that will end badly.