Key to Vikings victory in Chicago will be having some success in running game
By Jeff Diamond, former Vikings GM who is co-hosting Monday Night Purple with Joe Anderson this season on News Talk 830 WCCO. Next show is Monday, September 30 live from 6-7 pm at B-52 Burgers and Brew in Inver Grove Heights. Tight end Irv Smith Jr. and defensive end Ifeadi Odenigbo are our player guests following Sunday’s game at Chicago. Jeff also co-hosts Purple Sunday Postgame with Henry Lake which will air upon the conclusion of Vikings-Bears.
Mike Zimmer clearly had the Chicago Bears at the top of his mind when he fired John DeFilippo, elevated Kevin Stefanski as the new offensive coordinator and brought in Gary Kubiak as offensive advisor and Rick Dennison as offensive line coach with a demand that the Vikings offense return to an emphasis on the running game.
And it was the way the Bears defensive front seven dominated the Vikings up front in the Bears’ sweep of the two games that motivated Vikings GM Rick Spielman to draft center Garrett Bradbury in the first round and sign starting guard Josh Kline in free agency in order to upgrade the O-line and fulfill Zimmer’s vision.
Through three weeks, it’s so far so great for the new zone blocking scheme as Minnesota has made a dramatic improvement in their rushing attack, going from No. 30 in NFL rankings last year (at 93 yards per game) to No. 2 thus far, averaging 194 yards per game on the ground.
In the 34-14 blowout of the Raiders last Sunday, the Vikings rushed for 211 yards with Dalvin Cook gaining 110 yards on 16 carries. Impressive rookie third rounder Alexander Mattison chipped in with 58 yards as the Vikings want to manage Cook’s carries in an attempt to keep him healthy after his injury-filled first two seasons.
But the true litmus test comes this Sunday for this Vikings offense that Cook calls “old school.” They face the NFL’s top rushing defense from last season when Chicago allowed 80 yards per game and they’re even better this season with just 69 yards per game given up on the ground.
Something’s gotta give.
Cook is the NFL’s leading rusher with 375 yards and an exceptional 6.6 yards per carry. Vikings Pro Bowl receiver Adam Thielen, who got into the run mix with a rushing TD of his own along with a receiving TD on Sunday, said of the third year back, “We’re riding his coattails and I expect that to continue.” Both Cook and Mattison scored rushing TDs against Oakland to bring Minnesota’s league-leading total to seven. The Bears fierce run D has not allowed a rushing touchdown. Again, something’s gotta give.
The Bears were successful in shutting Cook down in Soldier Field last season when they held him to 12 rushing yards on nine carries with a lost fumble along with three receptions for minus two yards. The Vikings as a team were held to 22 yards rushing in that 25-20 loss in which Cousins threw two interceptions including a Pick Six by safety Eddie Jackson.
In the rematch in Minnesota with a playoff spot on the line for the Vikings in the 2018 season finale, Cook fared slightly better with 11 carries for 39 yards but Chicago held Minnesota to 63 rushing yards for the game. Again, the one-dimensional Vikings offense was beaten 24-10 as Cousins was held to 132 yards passing.
So many story lines—can Kirk Cousins win a big game on the road against a top defense and against the defense that overwhelmed him twice last year? And can the Vikings defense reassert themselves against a creative Bears offense under Matt Nagy that rushed for 148 yards and 169 yards in the two victories last season while quarterback Mitch Trubisky was effective running for key first downs and passing against the Vikings.
But to me, the biggest story line this Sunday is whether the Vikings can have enough success running the ball with Cook and fine rookie back Alexander Mattison to set up the play action passing game for Cousins and his excellent receivers.
Keys to Vikings beating the Bears:
1.The biggest story line this Sunday is whether the Vikings can have enough success running the ball with Cook and Mattison to set up the play action passing game for Cousins and his excellent receivers. The Vikings have to at least have moderate success running the ball. No one expects them to rush for 200 yards against this Bears stout run D but they need to get 100 yards on the ground to prevent the Bears from unleashing their fierce pass rush on Cousins. Minnesota needs Kline back from the concussion he sustained last Sunday.
2. This week also is a litmus test for Cousins who needs to prove that he can gain a signature road win over a top team (he was 1-5 against winning teams last season plus the Packers loss this season). The new offense has been a dramatic shift for Cousins who has thrown for over 200 yards in just one game thus far after doing it in 14 of 16 games last season. When passing, Minnesota must double team Mack and also pay extra attention to Akiem Hicks who dominated the Vikings last year with 2.5 sacks and six tackles for loss in the two matchups. Hicks suffered a knee injury in Washington but is expected back even with the short week after the Monday night game.
Laquon Treadwell has returned for receiving depth but the Vikings will go with their two tight end offense and look for Irv Smith Jr. to be a factor as he was last week with three catches for 60 yards.
3. Defensively, Minnesota must stop the run including Trubisky’s scrambles and cover Taylor Gabriel. It has surely stuck in in Zimmer’s craw that the Bears rushed for 148 yards and 169 yards in their two wins over the Vikings last season. He wants to stop the run first and then unleash the Vikings strong pass rush. Trubisky hurt the Vikings on several key runs for first downs last year. Minnesota needs a healthy Anthony Barr to return after missing the Raiders game with a groin pull so he can team up with the Vikings’ excellent middle linebacker Eric Kendricks to spy on Trubisky and stop his scrambles. Gabriel caught three TD passes against the Redskins and hurt the Vikings as a receiver and running jet sweeps last year so he must be contained.
Trubisky has been under pressure in Chicago for his sub-par play in the first two games this season, especially in the Bears 10-3 home loss to the Packers in the opener. He improved in a three TD performance on Monday night but still threw a bad second half interception on a fade route into the end zone that kept Washington alive until Case Keenum’s fifth turnover. If Trubisky struggles early, it could bring out the Chicago boo birds and increase the pressure on him.
4. Cut down on the penalties on both sides of the ball. 1st and 20 is not a good situation to get into against the Bears’ aggressive, turnover-forcing defense.
5. Continue last week’s solid performances by kicker Dan Bailey and punter Britton Colquitt in a tough venue to kick--usually windy Soldier Field. And perhaps Marcus Sherels can bust a punt return. He was re-signed with Chad Beebe out with an ankle injury. For the Bears, kicker Eddie Pineiro is dealing with a knee injury which could affect his performance.
It shapes up as an important test for both teams in the national doubleheader game, as big as they come for a game so early in the season. Lots of story lines in this game but the biggest is Minnesota’s reinvigorated rushing offense against Chicago’s stout rushing defense which should be the major factor in which team emerges with a key victory.
The pick--Da Bears in a close game:
Chicago’s defense was so impressive in their dismantling of Washington on Monday night. Now that was the lousy Redskins but even so, Soldier Field has been a tough place for the Vikings to win even when the Bears weren’t a good team. I remember watching Walter Payton rush for a then league-record 275 yards in 1977 against our division champion Vikings team in a 10-7 Bears victory.
I’m impressed with the way the Vikings coaches have implemented the new zone blocking scheme and elevated the running game with Cook off to a terrific start. But the Bears will be a lot tougher to run on and if they control Cook and Mattison on the ground, it will be difficult for Cousins to make enough plays to beat them. Perhaps the Minnesota D can stop the run and force Trubisky into turnovers. While my heart says the Vikings win, my head picks the Bears 20-17.
Around the NFL Observations:
1.The NFL’s best division so far—none other than the NFC North where all four teams have winning records and the surprising Packers and Lions are unbeaten. The 2-0-1 Lions have knocked off two playoff teams from last season—the mistake-prone Chargers and Eagles—and face their toughest test thus far when they host the league’s best player in Patrick Mahomes and his 3-0 Chiefs this Sunday.
2.The high ankle sprain that will keep Giants’ running back Saquon Barkley out 4-8 weeks is good news for the Vikings who travel to the Meadowlands next week to face the G-Men. Without Barkley, it will be easier for Zimmer to get after rookie QB Daniel Jones who had a winning debut last Sunday.
3. It was nice to see ex-Viking Teddy Bridgewater win his first start in place of the injured Drew Brees, upsetting the Seahawks in one of the NFL’s toughest road venues. It doesn’t get any easier for Bridgewater and the Saints who host the undefeated Cowboys on Sunday night.
Jeff Diamond was the NFL Executive of the Year in 1998 after the Vikings' 15-1 season. He also is former president of the Tennessee Titans. He does sports/business consulting, media and speaking work including corporate and college speaking on Negotiation, Management, Leadership and Sports Business--contact him at diamondj4@comcast.net
