What a week. The Timberwolves pretty much blew up the team in the last three days.
From the time Gersson Rosas came in as the President of Basketball Operations, there was no question changes would happen. Rosas and coach Ryan Saunders had a roster filled with players who didn't fit their new style of play. This was a lot of change in a hurry. Only two players remain from the roster last May when Rosas came to the Twin Cities: Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Okogie.
First, they drafted Jarrett Culver out of Texas Tech. Culver, Towns and Okogie are now the only three players left from the start of the 2019-20 season. That is some major turnover.
That's a lot to take in. What does it mean going forward? Five things to keep an eye on.
D'Angelo Russell joins Towns as the new Timberwolves' Dynamic DuoGetting Russell is a franchise-altering move. He's 23 and averaging a career high in points (23.6/game). He's a playmaker who can make shots. Towns is just 24 which gives the Wolves a young core that hasn't yet hit their prime. Shades of Marbury and Garnett or Rubio and Love. Those were successful pairings, even if in the end they fell apart in the end. Hopefully this one sticks.
There's also a deep friendship between the two. While that's not necessarily important to what happens on the court, it eases the tension of Towns' discontent. His agent just signed on to be the new President of Basketball Op's for the New York Knicks (hello rumor mill). He's been frustrated with the team. And NBA players have always been able to force their way out of situations they don't like and onto other teams (see Garnett, Kevin). This move will satisfy Towns, at least for the time being. These things matter in the NBA.
With Towns' skill as an outside shooter, and Russell's craftiness, this is a very dangerous pick-and-roll combination that is going to give the defense fits. It will open up shots for other players too. Of course, they will have to make those shots, and that's been an issue for the Wolves in 2019-20. Currently, the Timberwolves are dead-last in 3-point percentage. Will Russell help there? Probably. He's hitting a career-best 37%. More importantly, it'll create open shots for teammates.
Are there any other usable parts the Timberwolves received?This is where the NBA can get confusing. Salary caps, luxury taxes, dead-money and expiring contracts. There's a lot of that happening here. In fact, the Timberwolves have too many players now and somewhere, some are going to be let go to save cash.
But there are a couple of nice pieces coming in as well.
Allen Crabbe, who has only played 13 limited minutes due to a knee injury, has some upside. He can hit shots and that's what the Wolves desperately need.
Malik Beasley might be the best new player outside of Russell. Beasley has been extremely productive, when given minutes. He got buried in Denver this year behind a very deep group of guards. But when he's played, he has made open outside shots. He's played with a center who is similar to Towns in that they create open shots for teammates. Beasley will be a perfect fit (on paper of course) with Towns and Russell. He also fits well with guys like Culver and Okogie who can get in the lane and open up space outside.
Other players are more of an unknown. It should be said, Hernangomez, Evans and Spellman were first round picks. Certainly there's talent. How they fit with this team is yet to be determined.
2020 DraftI think it's safe to say, the Timberwolves should improve slightly with Russell now in Minny. Even with that slight improvement, this is a lottery-bound team (currently, they'd have the 5th overall pick). The Timberwolves also picked up the Brooklyn Nets first round pick in 2020, which is currently sitting at 16th. Brooklyn could keep that pick if they slide back out of the Eastern Conference playoffs, but right now it seems a safe bet the pick will be Minnesota's.
These can be assets for another trade. If we've learned anything, it's that Rosas isn't afraid to pull the trigger, and in fact initiated most of these deals. He has been very aggressive in moving pieces around the board and there's no better capital to own than first round draft picks.
If they choose to keep the picks, it's going to be fascinating. Let's just say the Wolves haven't had the best results over the years. But, with Russell and Towns in place, finding talent that fits into this roster shouldn't be too difficult. It appears that Rosas and Saunders at the very least have a vision for what they want this team to look like. It should also be said, most NBA Draft observers think 2020 is a weak class, and 2021 is much stronger on paper. As we have seen however, those predictions do not always come true.
New RotationWe'll see Saturday night who ends up on the floor for the Wolves, but it's fun to speculate what will happen following all the change.
This is a much more cohesive unit than we've seen the last few months. Russell and Towns are the playmakers, Okogie is the slasher/energy guy, Beasley your spot-up shooter, and Hernangomez is a good fit as a big guy with Towns.
Johnson, Crabbe and Culver are all pretty solid rotations guys. The first two can hit outside shots, and Culver has proven he's a solid slasher in his rookie year. McLaughlin will play backup point guard but Culver will probably see time there too. And we'll see what they have in young guys Spellman and Vanderbilt. Reid has been just OK but will still see some limited minutes.
An unknown is Evan Turner. He is likely a buyout candidate before March 1st. He's not a great fit in Saunders' system because he is a very poor outside shooter. He was included in the trade because of the need to match dollars, and his over $18 million deal expires the end of the year. There's not much chance he will contribute much to this team.
Also, keep an eye on Jake Layman, who has been out for over two months recovering from a toe injury. Before he went down, he was the most productive bench player the Wolves had. He should be ready to go after the All-Star Break and if he's healthy he is a perfect fit alongside Russell/Towns as well. That would give the Timberwolves a bevy of wing shooters, with Layman/Beasley/Johnson/Crabbe.
D'Angelo Russell is certainly the biggest trade prize, but do not overlook how much the team improved it's 3-point shooters. In today's NBA, you have to surround your big stars with great shooters. This is a massive step up from what they had to start the season.
The end of the Andrew Wiggins EraPrior to this season, I picked the Top 30 players in 30 years of Timberwolves basketball. I ranked Wiggins 30th, which is admittedly harsh. But I had my reasons.
From 2014-2020, he scored a lot of points. Enough to rank as the 2nd leading scorer in team history. He was also one of the most inefficient players in NBA history. Not currently. Ever (I'm not kidding).
I wrote then, he's young still, with room to improve. There was hope that Rosas and Saunders would get the most out of him, and in truth, he did improve this season. He was much better with shot selection, hit more threes, and was clearly trying to play in a different way. He's also slipped again since a solid start in November. Regression is not what the Wolves needed.
It's not enough. Nowhere near enough to justify his max contract that paid him $148 million over five years. The fit with Towns wasn't working (when you're 15-35 that's all you need to know). Wiggins by all accounts is a wonderful guy. He played hard. He was durable and never had issues off the court or with teammates. But you have to produce when you're being paid like he was. He just didn't do enough.
The team needed a great point guard to play with Towns, not an inefficient wing who turned the ball over and was below average as an outside shooter. NBA big men are much more successful when they have a great point guard.
Will this all make the Wolves playoff contenders? Certainly not this season. That's a dead quest.
Next year? Meh. The offense will be better, they'll win more games, and there is definitely more excitement around the franchise (and with fans). Can they play enough defense to win over 40 games? That's the biggest question. This is not the perfect roster by any means, and more changes will have to happen before the Timberwolves return to playoff contention in the west.