Flash Flood Risk from Cristobal Shifts East of Twin Cities Metro

Tropical Swirls 6-9-20
Photo credit (Image courtesy of AerisWeather)
"At least we don't get hurricanes! At least we don't get hurricanes! "

But once in a blue moon Minnesota does experience a gently-used tropical depression, the soggy remains of a hurricane or tropical storm. Such will be the case from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the heaviest swath of rainfall expected to stretch from eastern Iowa and far southeastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin, where some 3-5" amounts are expected. Very heavy rain, falling over a relatively short period of time, on ground that is already partially saturated from recent heavy rains, may result in basement, street and stream flooding. For this reason The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon into much of Wednesday.

If you've had flooding issues in the past, you'll to pay attention, especially if you live in Wisconsin.

Tropical Tracks Since 1850 

In case we weren't living through enough history, #Cristobal will become the farthest northwest a tropical system has ever gotten in North America! #wiwx pic.twitter.com/zcMNnGKPB1

— Max Tsaparis (@MaxTsaparis) June 9, 2020

What's left of Tropical Storm Cristobal is pinwheeling right up the Mississippi River, on a track projected to be farther west than any tropical system since records were first kept in the mid-1800s. So yes, this is an historic storm - extremely unusual - certainly for early June. The "spaghetti plot" above shows the track of every tropical system since 1850, so if anyone asks, this is extraordinary.

June is the wettest month of the year, on average, for all of Minnesota, but slugs of tropical moisture this far north are highly unusual. Some communities, especially St. Croix River Valley, far southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, will pick up a month's worth of rain tonight.

No need to water the lawn or garden anytime soon, especially for our friends in Wisconsin!