Earlier this week, we looked back at the remarkable run the Vikings went on in the 1987 playoffs, winning in New Orleans then San Francisco, before a loss in Washington in the NFC Championship game.
The Vikings backed into the playoffs at 8-7 (this was a 15-game season due to the player's strike). The Saints and 49ers were a combined 25-5. These weren't just mismatches, according to the records. These were games where the Vikings shouldn't have had any shot whatsoever. Yet they blew out the Saints 44-10, and shocked Joe Montana and the Niners 36-24. It's one of the biggest "Cinderella" runs in the NFL over the last 30+ seasons even though they came up a Darrin Nelson dropped pass from making the Super Bowl.
This year isn't quite that dramatic, but there's no question New Orleans, who the Vikings beat last Sunday 26-20 in overtime, and San Francisco had much better seasons than Minnesota.
Vegas likes the #1 seeded San Francisco by a good margin. Vegas Insider has the Vikings losing by a touchdown all across the sports books which is about the same as it was in New Orleans last week.
What makes me say this week on the road in San Francisco more difficult than last week? History. It's not been a good trend.
To start with, the Vikings have played well in New Orleans. Since that Wild Card win in January of 1988, the Vikings are a respectable 5-5 at the Superdome, a notoriously difficult place to play. And in the games they lost most recently (2009 NFC Championship, 2010 and 2014 regular season games), the Vikings kept the games close.
Turning to the West Coast, the Vikings success is much more rare. Starting with the win in the 1987 playoffs, the Vikings are 2-9 in San Francisco. Besides '87, the only win was 27-7 in December of 2007 (San Francisco finished the year 5-11 so clearly not a good team).
If we look at just the playoff games in San Francisco, they are 1-3. There is a 34-9 loss in 1988, a 41-13 loss in 1989, and a 38-22 loss in 1997. All Divisional Playoff games, all big blowouts.
The most recent matchups between these teams were in 2015 in San Francisco, and 2018 at U.S. Bank Stadium.
The Vikings lost in 2015, 20-3, a shocking loss to start that season. The Vikings ended 2015 at 11-5, San Francisco at 5-11.
In 2018, it was another season-opening game, and the Niners were ready for a breakout in the second season of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who they had just signed to a massive 5-year, $137 million contract.
It didn't go well for the Garoppolo as the Vikings picked him off three times in a 24-16 win. Kirk Cousins threw for 244 yards and a couple TD's. Garoppolo would end up hurting his knee in week 3 and missed the rest of the year.
Back healthy in 2019, he's come back to earn the trust San Francisco clearly had in the young QB by giving him the big contract. He threw for 3,978 yards with 27 TD's in 2019. He's thrown 13 interceptions (compared to just 6 for Cousins), but Garoppolo lead San Francisco's offense to the second most points in the league (behind Baltimore). The Vikings rank 8th in points.
Here's a quick look at how these teams matchup and our prediction.
Viking Offense vs. San Francisco DefenseEdge- San Francisco
This one really comes down to the Viking offensive line holding up against a pretty fierce San Francisco front seven. Opening holes for Dalvin Cook, and keeping Cousins clean will be the biggest game stories. The Packer win in week 15 is the best comparison to what the Vikings will see this week. 49er defensive end Nick Bosa is exactly the type of quick, edge pass rusher that killed the Vikings against Green Bay. The 49ers are also very aggressive up front and will come after the Vikings.
Where the Vikings have an edge is on the outside (assuming a healthy Adam Thielen). Cook, Diggs, Thielen and Rudolph/Irv Smith should find plenty of space in the passing game if Cousins has time to throw.
The O Line played great in New Orleans, but they'll have a bigger challenge with San Francisco this week. This has to be their best effort of the season.
Viking Defense vs. San Francisco OffenseEdge- Minnesota
The defense has played lights out in recent weeks after a mid-season slump. Most of the key players are healthy, and they're creating turnovers. That's where the Vikings can win. The 49ers will turn the ball over. We mentioned the interceptions Garoppolo has thrown. They also have 10 lost fumbles. While 23 total turnovers isn't the worst in the league, it is the worst of the teams still in the playoffs. Overall, however, San Francisco is still a +4 in turnover differential.
The Vikings are +11 and have created the fourth most takeaways in the league. To win, that has to continue.
If there's one matchup to watch, it's the 49ers tight end George Kittle against the Vikings' linebackers and safeties. The Star Tribune called Kittle "the new Gronk" in reference to the now retired New England tight end. The comparison is right on. He's a great blocker. Unquestionably he is one of the best run-blocking tight ends in the NFL.
San Francisco will take care of the ball, and Garoppolo/Kittle will make a couple of big plays. Dalvin Cook will have a very difficult time finding room, and even though Cousins and his receivers make a few plays, they'll come up just short in a close one.
49ers 24, Vikings 20