Super Bowl Sunday is just ahead and there are storylines aplenty starting with the old school Patriots in their fourth title game in five years, against the new kids on the block - the Rams. 66-year old New England Coach Bill Belichick and his 41 year old quarterback Tom Brady are in their ninth Super Bowl facing the L.A. newbies -33-year old Coach Sean McVay, and his 24 year old QB Jared Goff.
Before I give you my prediction of how this matchup of prolific offenses, underrated defenses and top-notch kickers will play out, I want to tell all the Patriots haters out there (which is most of the country) to just stop for a minute.
Patriot haters--you need to appreciate what we're witnessing because there's a good chance we'll never see a team dominate the NFL like New England has for the past two decades. In 30 years, people will look back and say this team was a true NFL dynasty like no other. Especially considering the free agency and salary cap era that began in 1993.
As a former team exec for 20 plus years, I know first-hand how hard it is to stay on top once you get there. You can't keep all your elite players due to salary cap constraints and other teams coming after your players. So, you have to try to keep your most important players and build around them, which the Patriots have been able to accomplish on a regular basis.
The other NFL dynasties of the past 60 years - the Packers of the 1960s, the Steelers of the 1970s and the 49ers of the 1980s - were able to keep their core players without fear of losing them due to other teams outbidding them or a salary cap constraining their spending.
10 straight AFC East titles, eight consecutive AFC Championship Game appearances and those nine Super Bowls in 18 years during the Belichick-Brady era, all remarkable accomplishments.
Through Spygate and Deflategate that turned the Pats from a beloved team to a basically reviled organization outside of New England, they've persevered and prospered. The key is strong ownership from Robert Kraft and his family, great coaching by Belichick and his staff, and outstanding scouting and player acquisition again led by Belichick as the rare coach who also is an excellent GM. The Patriots have had to let a lot of excellent players leave in free agency, but they have always found a way to keep most of their core players. And they have the good fortune of having the greatest quarterback of all-time in Brady, who has regularly taken less money in order for the team to give him a better supporting cast (easier to do when you have a ton of endorsements and a supermodel wife who has made a fortune on her own).
We always hear that Belichick is a defensive genius who wins without alot of Pro Bowl players on defense. What is less discussed is Belichick's brilliance in hiring excellent coaches. Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels gets a lot of deserved accolades for his schemes and play calling, but the Pats also have perhaps the best offensive line coach in NFL history--Dante Scarnecchia. He's taken a group with no first or second round draft picks and molded them into a unit that has been dominant in the running game and not allowed Brady to be sacked this postseason (with Brady's quick release certainly helping the cause).
Now I'm not suggesting the Vikings follow that road and fill their underproductive offensive line with later round draft picks and low cost free agents because the Vikings don't have Scarnecchia to coach them up. So Minnesota needs to go to the first and second round along with a big bucks free agent to add the needed ingredients that will produce an O-line to better protect Kirk Cousins and open holes for Dalvin Cook.
So hate the Patriots if you must, but appreciate their greatness and especially the excellence of Belichick and Brady who have led this dominant franchise for close to 20 years.
Picking a winner: hard to go against Tom Terrific in a big game:
Brady had a good regular season but he's elevated his play-as usual- at playoff time. He threw for 343 yards and led the Pats to TDs on their first five drives in the divisional round blowout of the Chargers. Then he went toe-to-toe with young phenom Patrick Mahomes, and threw for 348 yards in the AFC title game win in cold Kansas City, not to mention three conversions on 3rd and 10 plays with perfect throws in the game-winning overtime drive.
While Brady and Goff are both riding high and can take over a game, both teams also have top five rushing attacks and excellent run defenses. Whichever former Georgia running back--Sony Michel of the Patriots or Todd Gurley of the Rams--has the most success running will probably win, as that will set up the play action game and open things up for two outstanding passing attacks.
Belichick does a great job of taking away what a team does best and I think he'll first try to stop Gurley's running and receiving. The Saints held Gurley to 10 yards rushing and I think the Patriots defense that has allowed just 30 yards per game rushing in their two playoff games can control Gurley, and then get after Goff with some timely blitzes and changing coverages. But the Patriots’ pass rush, led by Trey Flowers, Adrian Clayborn and Dont'a Hightower, will need to pressure Goff, as the secondary for New England is older and will have trouble staying with fast Rams receivers Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods if Goff has time (and Goff is playing with confidence after outplaying Drew Brees two weeks ago).
For the Rams’ defense, it's a huge challenge to slow down Brady, running back Michel (two 100 plus yard games in this year's playoffs), go-to receiver Julian Edelman, tight end Rob Gronkowski who played well in K.C., and James White catching passes out of the backfield. This Pats offense has averaged 511 yards per game against the Chargers and Chiefs, and scored 78 points while converting an astounding 61% on third down.
The Rams' two defensive tackles--NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh--must have huge games stopping the run and getting a consistent inside pass rush on Brady so he can't step up in the pocket. Brady's quick release and a solid running game will put stress on the Rams D.
Both kickers are excellent and playoff tested--L.A.'s Greg Zuerlein won the New Orleans game with his 57-yard field goal and Stephen Gostkowski has always been clutch in postseason.
I look for a close game as the Patriots almost always play tight Super Bowls. I just can't pick Brady to lose with the way he's playing and how he thrives under big game pressure. McVay is an exciting young coach but I think he meets his match against Belichick when the Pats coach has had two weeks to prepare.
I've got Patriots 34 Rams 31 in a thrilling Super Bowl LIII, which would be a record sixth Super Bowl victory for Belichick and Brady.