Time for a history lesson, Vikings fans.
The disappointing loss to the Bears that ended the Vikings season sent fans and media into playing the blame game - primarily directed at Kirk Cousins and his offensive line. I want to remind Vikings observers that with the right moves, Minnesota can quickly return to Super Bowl contender status.
That was indeed the expectation this season, but perhaps an unrealistic one given the offensive line concerns going back to training camp. It happened as recently as last season when the 13-3 Vikings rebounded from an 8-8 season. There were major offensive line issues in 2016 that derailed a 5-0 start. The Vikings thought they had fixed the problem by adding tackles Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers in free agency and drafting center Pat Elflein in the third round. That worked for one year before the line performed poorly against top defenses such as the Bears this season, with Reiff, Remmers and Elflein not playing as well, in part due to all of them battling injuries.
Other major issues for this year's line included the absence of the two starting guards from 2017—Joe Berger, who retired, and Nick Easton, due to a season-ending neck injury. The death of outstanding offensive line coach Tony Sparano also required adjusting and had an effect.
I also will cite two Vikings teams I worked for as examples of addressing offensive line problems with excellent results, as well as a current team in the Colts who recognized the O-line as a huge issue and fixed it in rapid fashion.
I was the Vikings’ Assistant General Manager in 1985-86 when we had a solid young defense and playmakers on offense, but our offensive line needed a boost after a couple of non-playoff seasons. We traded for a future Hall of Fame tackle in Gary Zimmerman, drafted Kirk Lowdermilk to anchor the line at center, and two years later we made it to the NFC title game.
A similar situation faced me when I was Vikings GM in 1994-95 after we traded for a high priced future Hall of Famer in QB Warren Moon. Like Cousins, Moon was facing lots of pass-rush pressure and taking too many hits, so we went to the top of the draft for help and picked two future Pro Bowl tackles in the first round--Todd Steussie in 1994 and Korey Stringer in 1995. They became the NFL's best pair of bookend tackles and joined another Hall of Famer and former No. 1 pick--Randall McDaniel--and a Pro Bowl center in Jeff Christy.
This dominant O-line helped our offense to five straight playoff seasons beginning in 1996 and two NFC title game appearances (including the record-setting 15-1 team in 1998).
Finally, the Vikings need to follow the example of today's Colts who recognized their fatal flaw, which, similar to this year's Vikings, was an inadequate offensive line that was unable to protect their franchise quarterback Andrew Luck. In 2016, Luck was sacked 41 times (one more than Cousins this year) which was second most in the NFL. As a result of the excessive hits, Luck had shoulder surgery which kept him out for the entire 2017 season. Things got worse for his replacements who were sacked a league-high 56 times in a 4-12 season.
So Indianapolis GM Chris Ballard ignored the so-called draft experts who said the No. 6 spot in the first round was too high to take a guard. He selected Quenton Nelson, who has played great and is a Pro Bowl selection as a rookie. In the second round, Ballard picked Braden Smith, who is starting at right tackle. He also signed a quality free agent guard in Matt Slauson, who joined Nelson, Smith and two other former No. 1 picks--center Ryan Kelly and tackle Anthony Castonzo. This unit has made an amazing improvement to allowing a league-low 18 sacks - with the help of several fine blocking tight ends.
Behind the much better blocking up front, Luck has returned to top form (39 TD passes), the running game has improved and the Colts are back in the playoffs as a 10-6 wild card team with a bright future.
So, massive improvement can be achieved on the Vikings offensive line as soon as next September if the Vikings fix this obvious problem through all avenues of player acquisition—free agency, the waiver wire, and most importantly, at the top of the draft. Unless there's a Hall of Fame caliber player (as Randy Moss was for us in 1998) who has fallen to No. 18 in the first round, the Vikings pick has to be an O-lineman, either a guard or a tackle who can swing to guard if Riley Reiff has a better season to hold on at left tackle.
Don't be surprised if the Vikings follow the Colts’ example and draft an offensive lineman in the second or third round too. 2018 second rounder Brian O'Neill had a good rookie season and will get better at right tackle (and could be the future at left tackle) as he hits the weight room and gets stronger. Elflein is a good center who was All-Rookie in 2017 but had an up and down second season as he came off shoulder surgery that caused him to miss the preseason. He still should have a good future in Minnesota.
So immediate improvement is needed at guard with two new starters to replace Remmers and Tom Compton, while Reiff must return to his 2017 form or be replaced in 2020. The Vikings also need to decide who will coach the line after Clancy Barone and Andrew Janocko served as co-offensive line coaches this season.
The lack of protection was a huge issue for Cousins in his inconsistent first season in Minnesota. He had some great games such as the Week 2 tie at Lambeau against the Packers when he threw for 425 yards and 4 TDs. But the September upset loss to the Bills and the two Bears losses stand out as down games for Cousins and the entire offense, with the offensive line's sub-par play a major factor in those key losses.
Before passing final judgment on Cousins as a Viking, I want to see him play behind a solid-enough offensive line so he's not under almost constant pressure when facing excellent defenses such as the Bears (and with a line that can open more holes for quality backs in Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray so the Vikings improve from the league's 30th ranked rushing team). Cousins needs time so that his excellent receivers Thielen and Diggs have time to run routes deeper than 5-8 yards.
The problem is clearly identified. Now it's time to fix it and I believe that will happen.
Playoffs: Wild Card Round Predictions:
1. Colts at Texans (Saturday, 3:35 PM): Tough one to call with both teams hot over the second half of the season. The Colts beat the Texans in Houston 24-21 in Week 14 and I like the mojo that Luck and his team are playing with a little more than the Texans. Indy 31-30 in a thriller.
2. Seahawks at Cowboys (Saturday, 7:15 PM): Coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider have done a tremendous job in quickly retooling this Seahawks team as they return to the playoffs after a one-year absence. I like QB Russell Wilson's big game experience over Dak Prescott. Seattle's young D will pressure Prescott and control Ezekiel Elliott's runs. I'll take the Seahawks 30-24.
3. Chargers at Ravens (Sunday, 12:05 PM): A rematch of Baltimore's 22-10 win in L.A. two weeks ago. QB Lamar Jackson is such a running threat (695 rushing yards) and the Ravens stout defense pressured Philip Rivers and intercepted him twice last time. The 12-4 Chargers have had a great season but I don't see the result being different in Baltimore than it was in L.A. Give me the Ravens 24-20.
4. Eagles at Bears (Sunday, 3:40 PM): I thought I'd be picking Vikings vs. Bears in a wild card game in Chicago this weekend, but instead it's the Eagles headed to Soldier Field in the premier game of wild card weekend. Philly is hot behind the once again late season heroics of QB Nick Foles, but this fierce Bears defense led by Pro Bowlers Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks up front should control Foles and the Eagles offense, while Bears QB Mitch Trubisky, the key to their postseason hopes, will make enough plays passing and running to get the win. Chicago 24 Philadelphia 17.
I'll talk next week about the Vikings upcoming free agency decisions and make my picks on the teams to make it to the conference title games, Super Bowl and the ultimate winner (hint: think of two 40-plus year old QBs battling in Super Bowl LIII in Atlanta on February 3).