The Minnesota Department of Health reports 11,799 lab-confirmed cases and 591 deaths, an increase of 13 from Sunday.
With the current, extended stay at home order expires in one week, Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm said the administration is having “active conversations” and compiling data for the next step in the state’s coronavirus response.
Malcolm explains the team is evaluating CDC and epidemiological data.
“We’re trying to factor in not only whether the shape of the curve or the steepness of the curve is changing and accelerating and what that may portend for faster rates of growth and hospital and ICU use going forward,” Malcolm said. “How we are feeling about our supply chain and our success in building up a state level reserve of critical equipment.”
The Minnesota mathematical data model version 3.0 is expected to come soon. It’s being vetted by partners of the University of Minnesota after the peer-review process.
Officials say it will include “scenario 5” which lists the impact on mortality and ICU rates by extending the stay at home order through the end of May.
A version added to the previous model at the end of April came at the request of State Sen. Michelle Benson, and showed higher ICU demand and mortality than “scenario 3,” which is an extended stay at home for the most vulnerable.
State Health Economist Stefan Gildemeister said those figures for “scenario 5” are outdated and will be included in 3.0. He said “scenario 5” was originally an “afterthought.”
“Where a marginally longer stay at home order can certain generate more time, but can have a greater demand for top ICU or else marginally increase mortality that that sort of relates to the fact that you’re pushing immunity our farther so at the point at which the economy opens up and individuals circulate, the number susceptible to the virus is greater than under a different scenario,” Gildemeister said.
Meanwhile, Minnesota has received its first shipment of 12900 vials of Remdesivir, the drug shown in a study to shorten the time to recovery by 30 percent, or from 15 to 11 days. MDH has started distributing it for use on hospitalized patients with severe cases of illness.
“We are making this allocation with an eye for maximizing the number of lives saved, taking into account both risk and expectation of benefit,” State epidemiologist Dr. Ruth Lynfield said.
Another 400 vials are expected tomorrow