Does it have to include the playoffs? Breaking the 18-game postseason losing streak? A deep playoff run? Or something short of all of that?
At this point we’ve got a pretty fair idea of what the roster and starting lineup is going to look like. And while many were hoping for another significant move to be made to bolster the rotation, Twins management has indicated that the starting five appears to be set with Sonny Gray, Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy.
On paper, that doesn’t appear to be a playoff-level rotation, but strange things happen in baseball seasons.
Last year it felt like everything that could go wrong for the Twins did go wrong. The temptation is to chalk that up to bad luck and presume that luck evens out over the long term. The trouble with that thinking is that it’s based on a false premise - last season’s troubles weren’t based solely on luck - and a misguided notion of what constitutes “the long term” - does luck even out over 10, 15, 20 seasons? Perhaps. But over two seasons? Not as dramatically as you might hope.
So could that starting rotation show up and show out in 2022? There’s a non-zero chance. Sure. Could the young pitchers like Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods-Richardson, et. al. come up and fill in well when inevitable injuries strike the starting five? That’s a possibility. Sure.
The trouble is that pinning your postseason hopes on “non-zero chances” and “possibilities” is a poor strategy. And make no mistake, the club has said it wants to compete for a postseason berth this year, and has backed that statement up with the Byron Buxton extension and even more so with signing Carlos Correa.
It’s entirely fair and reasonable to hold the club accountable to that standard. A successful 2022 isn't the 83-79, missing-the-playoffs-by-four-games record that the USA Today recently predicted (Baseball America and Fangraphs also have the Twins with a second-place finish and out of the postseason picture), even though that’s a 10-game improvement over 2022.
Given the quality of the offense, and the elite up-the-middle defense, along with the financial commitments the Twins have made to Buxton and Correa, a successful season is making the playoffs and snapping that 18-game losing streak. Period.
That’s an entirely fair goal. And you’re not a “bad fan” for saying so. The club has set that expectation. Now let's see if they do what’s necessary to get there. With Opening Day less than a week away, there’s still work to do.
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