The 14-team field is set for the 2022-23 NFL postseason. But we only know who 12 of the starting quarterbacks will be when their respective teams first take the field in the playoffs.
In Miami, the Dolphins are back in the postseason for the first time since 2016. But Tua Tagovailoa has had at least two concussions this season, and remains in the protocol at the time of publication. While we're going to guess that Tagovailoa returns for a playoff matchup with the division-rival Buffalo Bills, that's no sure thing.
And given that rookie Skylar Thompson had to play in Week 18 with the team's postseason hopes on the line, there's no certainty on whether Teddy Bridgewater -- dealing with a relatively serious finger injury -- will be able to play if Tagovailoa is unavailable.
Meanwhile, things have gotten murky in Baltimore as well. Former NFL MVP Lamar Jackson hasn't played (or even practiced) since suffering a PCL sprain in his left knee in early January. NFL Media's Ian Rapoport said over the weekend that Jackson "has indicated to people close to him that he's confident he'll play in the playoffs," but added the caveat that "others who have watched him closely aren't as convinced."
Until Jackson practices, it's hard for us to project that he'll play in a game. For now, we're going to say that it will be Tyler Huntley under center against the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round, but even he missed Week 18 with wrist and shoulder injuries. Anthony Brown vs. Joe Burrow in the playoffs anyone?
For the 12 other playoff participants, there's certainty at the quarterback position. With that in mind, here are our rankings of the 14 quarterbacks we anticipate will start the first playoff game that their team plays:
14. Tyler Huntley, Baltimore Ravens
Will Tyler Huntley start for the Ravens in the postseason?
(Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
The Ravens went 2-2 in games that Huntley started this season, as he tossed two touchdowns to three interceptions, while also rushing for 137 yards. Baltimore's best bet at making a run is getting Lamar Jackson back for the postseason, but even if that were to happen, it's hard to envision them upsetting the Bengals.
13. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy and the 49ers have reached the postseason.
(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
We'll see what happens if Purdy at some point has to go throw-for-throw with an established star quarterback, but he's done an excellent job since taking over for Jimmy Garoppolo. In five starts, Purdy has tossed 13 touchdowns and the 49ers have gone 5-0. With Kyle Shanahan calling his plays and Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey at his disposal, it wouldn't be shocking if this season ends with Purdy hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Daniel Jones is coming off of the best season of his career.
(Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
In his first season under Brian Daboll, Jones did a significantly better job of taking care of the football, while also rushing for a career-high 708 yards and seven touchdowns. Jones threw for 334 yards in his previous meeting with the Vikings, who the Giants will square off with again in the Wild Card Round.
11. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith had a career year in 2022.
(Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
In one of the most shocking stories of the NFL season, the former first-round pick had the best season of his career in 2022, as he succeeded Russell Wilson as the starting quarterback in Seattle. A strong playoff performance could go a long way in convincing Pete Carroll and John Schneider not to use the No. 5 overall pick -- obtained from the Denver Broncos in the Wilson trade -- on a quarterback.
10. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Will Tua Tagovailoa return for the playoffs?
(Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
It would probably be the right decision for his long-term health if Tagovailoa didn't play again this season, and perhaps ever. But Jay Glazer of FOX Sports reported last week that Tagovailoa was hopeful to be able to return if the Dolphins made the postseason. And whether you are part of "Tuanon" or fall somewhere else on the spectrum in your evaluation of the third-year quarterback, he would definitely give them the best chance to upset the Bills.
9. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are back in the playoffs.
(Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Cousins racked up 4,517 passing yards in 2022, and guided the Vikings to a 13-4 regular season record. And yet, the Vikings finished the season with a -3 point differential, and narrowly edged out the Giants a few weeks ago. Would it really be that surprising if Cousins and the Vikings are upset in the Wild Card Round?
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are back in the playoffs.
(Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)
Given the high standard that he's established for himself, it's fair to say that Prescott had a disappointing regular season, leading the NFL with 15 interceptions, even though he only played in 12 games. Despite winning 12 regular season games, he and the Cowboys will go on the road in the Wild Card Round, and face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If they are upset by a Buccaneers team that struggled for much of the 2022 season, don't be surprised if Prescott has a new head coach next season.
7. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
(Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
This is not Brady of 2007, or even 2020. But it is encouraging that he and Mike Evans seemed to re-establish what was a lethal connection in their first two seasons together late in the regular season. Monday will mark Brady's 48th career playoff game, meaning that in addition to the 23 regular seasons that he's played in, the seven-time Super Bowl Champion will have played in three 16-game season's worth of postseason games.
6. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has emerged as a star.
(Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
In the second half of his second NFL season, Lawrence emerged as the star quarterback that many believed he would be since he led Clemson to a National Championship victory in his true freshman year. This is the first postseason action that Lawrence and many of his teammates will see in the NFL, but head coach Doug Pederson is no stranger to pulling off unlikely postseason wins.
5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts is an MVP candidate.
(Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Hurts made impressive steps forward in his second NFL season, leading the Eagles to a postseason appearance, where they were handily beat by Brady and the Buccaneers. But it's hard to quantify the leap he has taken in his third season as a passer, throwing for 22 touchdowns in addition to 13 scampers into the end zone. A bye should do Hurts and the Eagles some good, as it will continue to allow his sprained right shoulder to heal. But come the Divisional Round, Nick Sirianni and the Eagles will once again need to be able to lean on Hurts as both the key cog in the passing and running game.
4. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert has reached the playoffs for the first time in his career.
(Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Despite having a coaching staff that far too often doesn't take advantage of his cannon arm, Herbert guided the Chargers to 10 wins and the first playoff appearance of his career. There's little doubt from here that Herbert is ready to defeat the Jaguars on the road in his postseason debut. But are offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and head coach Brandon Staley going to get in his way of doing that?
3. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
(Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
In the blink of an eye, Burrow has turned one of the laughingstock franchises in the NFL into a perennial Super Bowl contender. As the No. 3 seed, the Bengals are likely looking at two road games after hosting the Ravens in the Wild Card Round if they want to return to the Super Bowl. Then again, that's the exact path Burrow took last year when the Bengals improbably won the AFC title.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
(Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
In two postseason games last year, Allen put up historic production, tossing nine touchdown passes to zero interceptions, while also being asked to be his team's most effective rusher. The Bills hopefully won't have to rely on Allen to be Superman every postseason game this time around, but if they are to finally get over the hump and return to the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1993 season, leaning heavily on one of the most gifted quarterbacks that the league has ever seen probably isn't a bad strategy.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes remains the best quarterback in football.
(Chris Unger/Getty Images)
Perhaps en route to his second NFL MVP, Mahomes led the league in passing yards (5,250), passing touchdowns (41) and QBR (77.6) in 2022. Still only 27, Mahomes has led the Chiefs to four straight AFC Championship Game appearances and two conference titles since becoming the starter in 2018.
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