The offseason clock keeps ticking for the Vikings and on March 4, there still isn't an answer at the most position in all of sports: the quarterback. The Vikings and Kirk Cousins have been dancing since January and despite both saying a stay in Minnesota is what they desire, it seems like money, specifically guaranteed money, is a major issue.
Cousins appears to want a fully guaranteed deal for two, possibly three years, in a new free-agent deal. The money is going to be north of $40 million per year and that's a lot for the Vikings to take on with a Justin Jefferson mega-deal looming. Is that too much? Or are the Vikings trapped in a situation where the other options don't give them much of a choice?
"I probably would have to consider it in a big way because what else do we have right now," asks WCCO's The Huddle cohost and former NFL linebacker Pete Najarian. "If we don't do that, we're going into free agency to find somebody else to replace Kirk, right. And we're probably looking to a J.J. McCarthy or somebody like that in terms of the draft. They're probably looking for a temporary fix and somebody behind who's going to be the next quarterback, the future of the Vikings."
It's about a 10-day window for the Vikings and Cousins right now. March 13 is when Cousins would become a full free-agent and $28 million in "dead cap" money would hit the Vikings salary cap. That number alone will make it almost impossible for the Vikings to bring him back even if he doesn't decide to sign elsewhere. So that means between now and the 13th we'll likely know the Purple Plan.
At this past weekend's NFL Combine as coaches and general managers try to line up their draft boards, Viking Coach Kevin O'Connell was asked about Cousins on the NFL Network's coverage. His answer was more hopeful than concrete.
"I know Kirk is going to go through a full process," said O'Connell. "He's a process guy. And hopefully we continue to be a strong part in that process and we figure out a way to keep him a Minnesota Viking. But, my expectation is we're not going to be the only ones who want Kirk Cousins to be a part of our team in 2024."
That sounds like a head coach prepared to see his quarterback moving on.
Complicating the situation is Cousins coming back from a torn Achilles, and while he says he's making great progress on his recovery, you are still signing a 36-year old QB coming off of major surgery says Najarian.
"The reality is he did have that injury, we don't know how great he looks. You always hear great reports, everybody's always perfect, that's just how it always is."
Dave Schwartz, Najarian's Huddle cohost, has a more definitive view of the situation.
"He's gone. He's gone," declares Schwartz. "That whole interview, to me, was PR-speak, look here not here. We've had all these talks. I'm not telling you lies, but I'm not telling you the truth. My thought is, at least I hope, they have had contingency plans in place the entire time if Kirk decides to go. I hope by this point they know whether he's leaving and he's right, he is leaving. Probably Atlanta or somewhere else with money is going to swoop in and say, 'yep, we'll give you that two year deal. Because we believe in the next two years we're in our window.' If the Vikings are being truly honest with themselves, they're not within their Super Bowl window the next two years."
While losing Cousins forces a full reboot of the Minnesota Viking offense, Najarian agrees that it might be time to move on. There are a couple of obvious options for a landing spot with most insiders speculating it's Atlanta.
"I agree that I think it's really doubtful he re-signs with the Vikings," says Najarian. "Doesn't mean it's improbable but it's probably a longshot just because of the money. And the fact that we have so many holes to fill. In my opinion, a lot of people are saying Atlanta, his wife's from Atlanta, got a house down there, I think he goes to Seattle and here's why. He's old enough he needs to win. They're a 9-8 football team. They not a 3-14 team. They were not far enough. Geno Smith threw too many interceptions and I think he'd be a very, very good fit with Seattle. I think Kirk could look very, very good in that offense," Najarian says.
The Broncos who are now moving on past the disastrous Russell Wilson signing are also in the market for a QB as are the Raiders, the Washington Commanders and possibly the Steelers.
Draft Decisions
Like every draft, there are a lot of QB-needy teams and not enough to go around.
J.J. McCarthy seems to be everyone's favorite target for the Vikings when they pick at number 11. But as Najarian noted, there are a lot of holes the Vikings need to fill including on defense. The Vikings could move up in the draft if there is a QB they really like. But if they stay at 11, the options get limited.
A number of draft predictions put three quarterbacks in the top three of four of the draft: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are almost certain to be gone quickly. The Vikings would have to jump a lot of teams to get one of them. And the Vikings aren't the only team lower in the draft that want a new QB (the Giants are one to watch too).
That leaves McCarthy, Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. who has a long history of injuries and that is scaring some teams, and Bo Nix of Oregon who faces concerns he was a "system QB" in Oregon's fast-paced offense. McCarthy is the youngest of that group of three and probably has the highest upside. Penix and Nix have more experience and will probably be quick studies in the NFL but both have big question marks.
Also consider, if the Bears take Caleb Williams number one, which looks like it's the most likely scenario right now, that makes Justin Fields available too.
Assuming the Vikings aren't able to jump up (which is unlikely), keep an eye on McCarthy. If he's available at 11 that seems like a potential match. Otherwise it might be waiting to see who's still there later in the first round for a potential trade up or even in the second round.
After Penix and Nix the QB class falls way off. Anyone else would be considered a long term project.
Money Moves
Another issue the Vikings face is a long term contract extension for All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is likely in line to be the league's highest paid non-QB. He's entering the last year of his rookie contract and there is no way the Vikings want him on the open market after 2024. General Manager Kwesi Adolfo Mensah has been clear that signing Jefferson is a priority this offseason.
Knowing that deal is coming, and with the QB needs front-and-center, the Vikings made a move last week releasing running back Alexander Mattison. After a few years backing up Dalvin Cook and showing flashes, it was a very disappointing 2023 for Mattison who actually fell to second on the depth-chart behind Ty Chandler by the end of the year. He didn't have a rushing TD, had issues with fumbles and only averaged 3.9 yards per carry.
Cutting Mattison only saves about $3.3 million in salary cap space for 2024, giving them more than $39 million in cap space total.
"It's not going to help with them with the two biggest questions they have this offseason which are Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins," says Schwartz. "This is one of the first times, with personnel moves, where I've thought this is right where you want to be. Alexander Mattison is a really great number two option. That's what I learned this year. He's not a number one option."
It looks like Chandler will get a chance to be the number one back in 2024 at this point although veteran Cam Akers could be in the mix. He's also rehabbing a torn Achilles and is a restricted free agent.
"They might think they have someone on the roster right now and I don't know if I agree with that," says Najarian who thinks the Vikings should explore some free agent backs including oft-injured but explosive former Giant Saquon Barkley.
The Draft is April 25-27.