It's caucus night in Minnesota. Both parties in the state are expecting high turnout for the first major political event for 2026, with Democrats energized by recent immigration enforcement, and an extremely competitive and crowded race on the Republican side for governor.
But it is the presence of federal agents in the state that could have the biggest impact on turnout.
And while he expects a high turnout, Minnesota’s DFL party chair Richard Carlbom says they are taking precautions in the event participants and candidates are worried.
“It means that we have to be vigilant,” says Carlbom. “We have to make sure that there are lawyers on site at some of these precinct caucus locations. And we've trained over 9,000 constitutional observers to be present in case ICE does show up.”
Minnesota’s GOP party chair Alex Plechash also showed some concern about possible disruptions from the other side.
“It wouldn't be a stretch to think that some people in that group of folks would try to infiltrate into a caucus and become a voting member, or maybe disrupt it in some way,” Plechash said. “Personally, I don't think that that's going to happen.”
Precinct caucuses to decide on state convention delegates and other party business will begin at 7:00 p.m. Tuesday night.
Non-binding straw polls will give an early look at the governor’s race, with a large number of Republicans vying for the chance to take on the likely Democrat in the race, current U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Olson says it is an especially big night for House Speaker Lisa Demuth and businessman Kendall Qualls, saying if they don’t finish in the top two places, one of their campaigns is essentially over.
“But there's a lot of energy for the caucuses this year,” WCCO political analyst Blois Olson said on the WCCO Morning News. “DFLers I'm talking to say they're feeling it when they're calling people, and then Republicans have that highly competitive governor's race, and that'll draw out probably a bigger crowd than a normal caucus here. So I think there's just a high level of political engagement, especially in Minnesota right now. So I would expect a lot of people to show up at the caucuses.”
As far as disruptions to party business in Minnesota Tuesday night, Olson says like any election-related activities, it is important for everyone to be prepared. That is especially true in Minnesota, where in the last year political violence erupted with the shooting death of House Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman, the injuries suffered by state Sen. John Hoffman, and the targeting of several other state lawmakers.
“It's like election day, you have to be ready for anything, and I think that's more of what it's about,” Olson explains. “I don't know that there would be significant disruption, but it's been very unpredictable. You have to just pause and remember the political environment we're in, and it is certainly very heightened here in Minnesota on both sides. People are just anxious because of the incidents we've had in this state. And I think that that gives all parties a little worry that there's somebody who's going to try to make a scene or disrupt, based on the way in which we've gone about the last year.”