Legislative leaders will be paying close attention to the special election in House 40B on Tuesday.
If the Republican candidate wins, it will give them 68 votes, enough to pass bills. But, if the Democrat wins, which is the more likely outcome in the heavily "blue" district, there will be a tie and that comes with complications.
University of Minnesota Political Science Professor Larry Jacob says in the event of tie, things will progress slowly for the rest of the legislative session.
"We should not expect much. This is gonna be a kind of, 'can we survive' moment and pass the budget for the next two years, which is absolutely essential," explains Jacobs.
Jacobs says crafting the budget is likely to be more difficult given the most recent budget forecast, which saw another shrinking of the surplus and a pending deficit down the road. The projected general fund shortfall for the 2028-29 biennium is nearly $6 billion or $852 million worse than November estimates.
"Governor Walz, who has strong views, he's got a small DFL majority in the Senate, and you got this tie in the House," says Jacobs. "And that is just a recipe for disagreement, particularly at a time when the parties are really at each other's throats.
House Leaders, Republican Speaker Lisa Demuth (Cold Spring) and the DFL Leader and Speaker Emerita Melissa Hortman have a compromise worked out once they can get to business following the special election. But how that actually works on the floor during session is another story. Jacobs says that will add a whole new level of intensity to the proceedings.
"Every little sniffle, every illness, every personal trauma that keeps a legislator away from St. Paul is gonna have huge impact," says Jacobs. "It will stop the action and the party that has the advantage will probably use it as much as they can."
This situation is not unprecedented. When the House convened in January 1979, there were 67 DFL members and 67 Independent-Republicans (as today’s Republicans were then called).
That body figured out how to govern - not without drama after Rep. Robert Pavlak (IR-St. Paul) was found guilty of violating campaign laws and threw the end of the session into chaos.
That is exactly what the 2025 group will need to figure out heading into the final two months of the session with a budget looming.
The special election Tuesday is in the northeast metro, the district representing much of Roseville. Democrat David Gottfried and Republican Paul Wikstrom are running for the seat that Democrat Curtis Johnson won handily, 65-35, in November. But that race was contested on the basis Johnson didn't live in the district, which is required by Minnesota law to serve in the House.
A Ramsey County judge ruled Johnson didn't live in the district for the six months required, and sending it back to a special election.
That special election was called by Governor Walz for late-January but another challenge to that came from Republicans saying that was "too fast." The State Supreme Court upheld that challenge which is why the election is now happening this week.