Several new reports have highlighted a possible unintended consequence of President-elect Donald Trump’s vow to carry out mass deportations when he returns to office in January.
According to the report from Axios, Trump’s efforts to deport undocumented immigrants could cause problems for local restaurants, meat packers, and farmers. The move could result in restaurants closing, food prices rising, and leaving produce rotting on the vine.
“Without the [undocumented] labor force, restaurants will shut down,” Sam Sanchez, a Chicago restaurant owner and executive director of the Illinois Restaurant Association, shared with Axios.
Sanchez shared that if restaurants lose the workforce, they’ll be left in a pickle, as it’s hard to fill the low-paying, high-demand jobs, and any pay increases to attract workers would result in higher prices for consumers.
Either way, Sanchez said the situation won’t work.
“Restaurants can’t afford to pay more, and no one is gonna pay $30 or $40 for a burger,” Sanchez stressed.
Jennie Murray, the CEO of the National Immigration Forum, a nonpartisan, nonprofit immigrant advocacy organization, echoed this point while speaking with CNBC.
“American companies are going to feel the strain on labor costs, and we’re going to be — depending on the skill level of the individual you are talking about — we’re going to be losing the fight for labor,” Murray said.
Not only will it have an impact locally, but if mass deportation were to be carried out, it would result in the loss of millions of workers who contribute billions to the US treasury.
In 2022, undocumented workers paid $96.7 billion in state, federal, and local taxes, including $25.7 billion in Social Security, according to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
A recent study from the Brookings Institution found that Trump’s proposed immigration policy could reduce 2025 gross domestic product growth by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points, or by $30 billion to $110 billion.
There are several industries that rely on immigrant workers, from healthcare to those who pick our food. In fact, the Department of Labor estimates that 42% of crop workers are undocumented immigrants, meaning the industry could soon be in a massive worker shortage, which could create issues at the grocery store.
In total, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that last year, immigrants made up 18.6% of the workforce, an all-time high.