Scientists have found a way to figure out where earthquakes will strike

When an 8.8 magnitude earthquake hit Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula last July, it damaged 1,400 homes, injured at least four people, caused a tsunami that damaged a pier at a nuclear submarine base and a harbor far away in Crescent City, Calif.

What if we had been able to predict exactly where that quake was going to hit? Scientists from UC Riverside said in a recent paper published in Geophysical Research Letters that they have developed a new tool to predict where these big quakes will occur.

A press release from the university said authors of the paper believe this new tool could improve “disaster preparations in some of the most dangerous seismic regions.”

Their paper specifically mentioned the Kamchatka Peninsula earthquake from last year. With the model, they were able to identify the “exact section of the Kamchatka subduction zone in eastern Russia where a massive earthquake later occurred.”

UCR geophysicists Gareth Funning and Axel Periollat led the study. They focus on how “Earth’s surface slowly deforms as tectonic plates lock together before rupturing,” the university said.

Funning said that earthquakes are often years in the making as stress builds up around these plates. Subduction zones – areas where two plates meet and one slides under the other – are hot spots for this pressure buildup and they often generate the largest earthquakes.

“Earthquakes capture headlines when they happen, but for years beforehand the fault is quietly accumulating strain,” Funning explained. “This strain can be measured.”

To create a new algorithm for predicting earthquake locations, the researchers used Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of subtle ground movement. This algorithm identifies portions of faults that are “locked and storing energy,” UC Riverside said. It added that these “locked” regions are known as “asperities.”

These asperities can act like “patches of friction” since they resist motion. This resistance then builds and builds to the point where it can trigger an earthquake. Beneath the Kamchatka Peninsula, researchers found a locked zone line before the large earthquake last year.

“While the timing of the event was beyond the scope of their method, the rupture occurred exactly where their model indicated strain had accumulated,” said UC Riverside. Periollat said seeing their prediction model “work so well confirmed that this approach has real potential.”

Another thing that the researchers discovered was that earthquakes can behave differently even if they occur in the same region. For example, the Kamchatka region previously experienced another big quake in 1952 that created a much bigger tsunami than the more recent earthquake.

UC Riverside said that suggests “the shallowest portion of the fault slipped less than during the earlier rupture.”

Even though the new model can’t predict the size or timing of a quake, it does help provide information that could help people prepare for quakes and mitigate potential damage. Going forward, the team is planning to apply their new approach to other major major subduction zones in Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, and the Pacific Northwest.

In California, they’re interested in applying the approach to the Hayward Fault.

“The Bay Area is home to many active faults that can erupt at anytime. Scientists have studied the faults extensively and determined that the Hayward is probably the most dangerous,” according to the Berkeley Seismology Lab.

Funning said this fault has both “creeping and locked sections, much like subduction zones.” He added that his team is investigating if they can figure out which parts are most likely to generate earthquakes in the future. One challenge they face with future research is gaps in global earthquake monitoring.

“Applying the method more broadly will require better observations. While GPS stations on land provide valuable information, scientists have far fewer measurements offshore, where many of the world’s most dangerous faults lie beneath the ocean,” UC Riverside noted.

That’s beginning to change, though. Researchers in Japan have begun using acoustic instruments placed on the seafloor to measure slow deformation over many years, said the university. Similar efforts have been proposed in other places too, like Chile and the Pacific Northwest.

Funning also said that people in earthquake prone areas should be prepared, even if the specifics of these events can’t be predicted yet.

“Your peace of mind shouldn’t come from believing we can forecast the exact earthquake,” Funning said. “Especially where we live in Southern California, it’s not a matter of if, but when. There is no substitute for preparation.”